Thread by Jack Mallers
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- Mar 13, 2023
- #CentralBank #Regulation #Finance
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We're watching the banking system of the United States collapse on itself in real-time
The Federal Reserve may have broken the US banking system and tarnished its credibility
Are we entering a new era for US banking?
Will the world now truly appreciate Satoshi and #Bitcoin?
The Federal Reserve may have broken the US banking system and tarnished its credibility
Are we entering a new era for US banking?
Will the world now truly appreciate Satoshi and #Bitcoin?
In 2008, bank portfolios were riddled with bad credit.
Same problem this time? Nope.
This time bank portfolios are riddled with long duration bonds like US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities.
Wait... what?
We were told those were "risk-free"?
What's the problem?
Same problem this time? Nope.
This time bank portfolios are riddled with long duration bonds like US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities.
Wait... what?
We were told those were "risk-free"?
What's the problem?
In 2020 the Fed began the great COVID-monetary-expansion at the lowest interest rates in 5,000 years
Free access to unlimited money for all
The result?
Huge rise in deposits & loans for banks
What did banks do with all the cash?
Risk-free long duration bonds!
Right, Jerome?
Free access to unlimited money for all
The result?
Huge rise in deposits & loans for banks
What did banks do with all the cash?
Risk-free long duration bonds!
Right, Jerome?
Unfortunately, there are major consequences when you allow the cost of money to be zero
What exactly?
Inflation
Inflation of everything you want to buy with that money
By 2022 we had record inflation numbers in the US
20%+ annual inflation if you wanted to live in a house 😱
What exactly?
Inflation
Inflation of everything you want to buy with that money
By 2022 we had record inflation numbers in the US
20%+ annual inflation if you wanted to live in a house 😱
Uh oh! The Fed had a massive problem
Their unlimited money printing forced banks to take on unlimited deposits + loans & hold long duration bonds
But the American people had had enough
Their USD was getting destroyed by record inflation
It all started to look like Zimbabwe 🥴
Their unlimited money printing forced banks to take on unlimited deposits + loans & hold long duration bonds
But the American people had had enough
Their USD was getting destroyed by record inflation
It all started to look like Zimbabwe 🥴
20%+ annual inflation if I wanted a house?!
I thought this was America?
The Fed had to fix this and fix it fast.
How fast?
The fastest Fed rate hike cycle ever, to be exact.
Never before had we seen the Fed raise interest rates this much and this quickly
I thought this was America?
The Fed had to fix this and fix it fast.
How fast?
The fastest Fed rate hike cycle ever, to be exact.
Never before had we seen the Fed raise interest rates this much and this quickly
Unfortunately, that has consequences too. Who would've thought?
"When Interest Rates Go Up, Prices of Fixed-Rate Bonds Fall"
Don't take my word for it, I'm a stupid millennial Bitcoiner.
Take the SEC's word for it.
www.sec.gov/files/ib_interestraterisk.pdf
"When Interest Rates Go Up, Prices of Fixed-Rate Bonds Fall"
Don't take my word for it, I'm a stupid millennial Bitcoiner.
Take the SEC's word for it.
www.sec.gov/files/ib_interestraterisk.pdf
Man, whoever is holding these fixed-rate bonds is screwed!
Wait, who is holding a lot of those again?
Banks.
Yes, your bank too.
All banks are losing money right now.
They're not losing their own money by the way, they're losing your money.
Wait, who is holding a lot of those again?
Banks.
Yes, your bank too.
All banks are losing money right now.
They're not losing their own money by the way, they're losing your money.
I'll dumb it down:
Your bank took your money and bought these bond things
Because the Fed has to fix the near-hyper-inflation they caused, the stuff your bank bought with your money is falling fast
The Fed broke banks and the banks no longer have your money
Do you understand?
Your bank took your money and bought these bond things
Because the Fed has to fix the near-hyper-inflation they caused, the stuff your bank bought with your money is falling fast
The Fed broke banks and the banks no longer have your money
Do you understand?
By the way, this isn't just about SVB.
This is about the entire US banking system.
Every small to midsized bank has this exact same issue.
🥲
This is about the entire US banking system.
Every small to midsized bank has this exact same issue.
🥲
History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
In 2008, the first to drop was Bear Sterns.
Did they get bailed out? Yes.
Did government allow big banks to get involved? Yes.
Did that fix everything? No.
JP Morgan bailed out Bear Sterns.
Six months later Lehman went down🤷♂️
In 2008, the first to drop was Bear Sterns.
Did they get bailed out? Yes.
Did government allow big banks to get involved? Yes.
Did that fix everything? No.
JP Morgan bailed out Bear Sterns.
Six months later Lehman went down🤷♂️
SVB = Bear Sterns?
Who will be Lehman? Who knows
The Fed drove banks into record deposits + loans and then crushed fixed income assets at record pace
Their irresponsible monetary policy has driven the US banking system into extreme insolvency
Any trust the Fed had is now gone
Who will be Lehman? Who knows
The Fed drove banks into record deposits + loans and then crushed fixed income assets at record pace
Their irresponsible monetary policy has driven the US banking system into extreme insolvency
Any trust the Fed had is now gone
Now, the Fed is busted with nowhere to run.
They were unable to revert inflation before the US banking system blew up in their face.
Soon, they will have to allow for infinite US Dollars to be created to ensure the banks have the money the American people think they do.
They were unable to revert inflation before the US banking system blew up in their face.
Soon, they will have to allow for infinite US Dollars to be created to ensure the banks have the money the American people think they do.
All the new funding of US Dollars required for banks will cause more record inflation.
The Fed will have to admit they aren't actually in control, they can't tame inflation, and the value of the dollar is uncertain at best, unsafe at worst.
Their reputation may never recover.
The Fed will have to admit they aren't actually in control, they can't tame inflation, and the value of the dollar is uncertain at best, unsafe at worst.
Their reputation may never recover.
What do the markets do now?
Punish the Fed for their mistakes and protect themselves.
Tonight every portfolio manager is now thinking about their US Dollar exit strategy.
Confidence in the dollar and the banking system is shot
Liquidity will flee banks
Risk assets will soar
Punish the Fed for their mistakes and protect themselves.
Tonight every portfolio manager is now thinking about their US Dollar exit strategy.
Confidence in the dollar and the banking system is shot
Liquidity will flee banks
Risk assets will soar
#Bitcoin fixes this. This was Satoshi's innovation.
#Bitcoin is the only instrument in history with an absolute fixed supply and incorruptible monetary policy.
You cannot inflate it.
You cannot change it.
You don't need to trust it.
America can truly appreciate #Bitcoin now.
#Bitcoin is the only instrument in history with an absolute fixed supply and incorruptible monetary policy.
You cannot inflate it.
You cannot change it.
You don't need to trust it.
America can truly appreciate #Bitcoin now.
How much should #Bitcoin be worth?
Well, how much should a fixed supply asset with an incorruptible monetary policy for the world be worth?
Less than Facebook? 🤣
#Bitcoin was specifically created for this.
Now we get to witness it in practice for the first time.
🚀
Well, how much should a fixed supply asset with an incorruptible monetary policy for the world be worth?
Less than Facebook? 🤣
#Bitcoin was specifically created for this.
Now we get to witness it in practice for the first time.
🚀
This is the beginning of the "new era" I referenced.
The Fed is officially trapped.
Bailout flood gates have been blown open.
Money printer go brrrrrrr while inflation is still running hot?
Record inflation will be the new normal for the US Dollar
The Fed is officially trapped.
Bailout flood gates have been blown open.
Money printer go brrrrrrr while inflation is still running hot?
Record inflation will be the new normal for the US Dollar
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Lawrence Lepard @LawrenceLepard
·
Mar 13, 2023
Brilliant Thread. Nails it. 👇