Thread by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
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- Mar 11, 2023
- #Finance
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The market definitely thinks there are more banks that will be run on.
Here's the 7 banks with the largest decline in the market in the last two weeks.
1/🧵
Here's the 7 banks with the largest decline in the market in the last two weeks.
1/🧵
We have:
SVB Financial Group (SIVB) (-60%)
PacWest Bancorp (PACW) (-54%)
Signature Bank (SBNY) (-36%)
Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) (-32.4%)
First Republic Bank (FRC) (-31.3%)
Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI) (-23.5%)
First Foundation Inc (FFWM) (-20.3%)
2/
SVB Financial Group (SIVB) (-60%)
PacWest Bancorp (PACW) (-54%)
Signature Bank (SBNY) (-36%)
Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) (-32.4%)
First Republic Bank (FRC) (-31.3%)
Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI) (-23.5%)
First Foundation Inc (FFWM) (-20.3%)
2/
Notably, the huge banks (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo) are doing just fine, as commentators have predicted (such as @matt_levine ).
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What is striking is that small / low depost banks have had limited declines, and big / large deposit banks have had similar. It's mainly a hollowing out of the the middle.
fin/
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P.S. this is just replicating the same analysis, more or less, from what I did in this paper with Tanju Yorulmazer studying a bank run in 2008:
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10693-009-0079-2
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10693-009-0079-2