There’s an increasing amount of articles in Western media speculating about Russia’s collapse and disintegration. Having contributed to this trend myself, I think some points are worth clarifying.

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First, collapse and disintegration are not necessarily the same thing. I’ve written about collapse, meaning collapse of the current regime and (perhaps) system, but this does not need to lead to Russia disintegrating into pieces – although it may.

Second, post-imperial Russia to some (incl. myself) means Russia that no longer seeks to dominate its neighbours. To others it means also disintegration of the Russian Federation, with colonised minorities establishing their own states. Again, one may lead to the other - or not.

Third, should the West actively promote regime collapse, regime change or even disintegration of Russia? I’d say the Western focus has to be on defeating Russia in Ukraine and denying it the right to a sphere of influence.

What kind of system will emerge in Russia consequently is something the Russians need to figure out themselves. Western ability to influence Russia’s domestic developments is very limited.

One of the achievements of the whole debate is that Western public is becoming aware of Russia’s colonial practices, which are just as deplorable and brutal as colonial practices of some Western countries used to be. The difference is that Russian colonialism continues.

Some commentators are enthusiastic about the prospect of Russia’s collapse and/or disintegration, others are fearful. I think it’s better to avoid being either. Certainly there are risks involved in Russia’s collapse, but

we should be far more afraid of Russia’s victory in Ukraine and the devastating consequences it would have for European security at large than Russia’s defeat and possible subsequent regime collapse.

One can no longer say that very few are predicting Russia’s disintegration – as was the case with the collapse of the Soviet Union. In fact, there are so many people predicting it that it has become kind of trendy. But whether it is likely to happen is another matter.

What is more likely is Ukraine’s victory, which would lead to collapse of Putin’s regime. This is increasingly seen as a real possibility in the West, provided that military aid to Ukraine is further stepped up.

The West must not constrain its support to Ukraine out of fear of Russia’s collapse. END