1/ The current state of the NFT market reminds me a lot of the sports card market in 2019-2021. A thread 🧵:

2/ When the sports card market started to explode a few years ago, a ton of collectors and investors started to heavily prospect on young players with a ton of potential (Luka, Trae, Zion, Herro, MPJ, Fox etc)

3/ To a lesser extent, prospecting has always been a part of sports cards. When I was collecting growing up (2008-2016) the hot commodities were Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, Blake Griffin, John Wall, Andrew Wiggins, Embiid, Ben Simmons...

4/ Most of those guys didn’t deliver on their hype or potential. Most of them currently sell for much less than they once did. The same fate is likely in store for the past few years of young talent. Only a few players will actually stay relevant and win long term.

5/ As it became clear to investors that not all of these young players would live up to their potential and as prices became out of whack, there was a rotation from prospects into GOAT-level cards (specifically rookie cards & more rare stuff): MJ, LeBron, Kobe, and even vintage.

6/ People still prospect on young players but are much more cautious (the Marvin Bagley and Kevin Knox and Darius Bazley markets are quite dead these days). And it’s likely only a couple of the best 25 and under guys in the NBA today will end up winning multiple rings and MVPs.

7/ I predict this same phenomenon will happen with NFTs. Over the next few months or even years, as it becomes apparent that your favorite profile picture project isn’t going to maintain relevance - money will flow into the GOAT projects/artists.

8/ GOATs: XCOPY, Beeple, Fewocious, Justin Aversano, CryptoPunks, Chromie Squiggles, Fidenza, historical projects (Curio Cards, Rare Pepes etc), and many others

9/ In response to the above list, our favorite kind-hearted neighborhood friend Beanie might ask “these projects and artists are cool BUT MAX WHERE IS THE UTILITY”

10/ With every large movement in history, there are certain figures and pieces of art that accrue significant value, become iconic, and enter mainstream culture. The utility is simply having the privilege of owning such pieces.

10/ Yes there will be a decent amount of PFPs that do become the next MJ/LeBron of their genre. The market clearly thinks BAYC, Cool Cats, Doodles, Clone X, VeeFriends, WoW have a decent shot at it. My bags here are Clone X and VF because I like betting on RTFKT-Nike and @garyvee

11/ But over time, money will flow to the guaranteed. To the artists and projects that are defining of this movement (a handful of PFP projects will likely enter this list as they mature). Don’t get caught holding the bag. We’re still plenty early but be careful anon.

12/ btw I’m a 22 year old buying and selling jpegs & cardboard on the internet wtf do I know