Thread
The 2022 death data for England and Wales is now complete
What stands out is that deaths excl covid are fully in line with those expected from
- Population evolution expected by ONS
- Historic trends of mortality rates by age
But covid is not the only factor as you will see⤵️
What stands out is that deaths excl covid are fully in line with those expected from
- Population evolution expected by ONS
- Historic trends of mortality rates by age
But covid is not the only factor as you will see⤵️
Why are there reports in the press about very high excess deaths in E+W? Because most of these reports compare with some historic data (say 2019 or 2015-2019)
As you see, this underestimates deaths from demographic evolution (green dots) and hence overestimate excess deaths
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As you see, this underestimates deaths from demographic evolution (green dots) and hence overestimate excess deaths
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The gold standard for an ED analysis is doing it using age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) which I did, using narrow age bands
When you compare these with the historic trend, you see that indeed, there is no real major excess deaths in 2022 not explanable by covid
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When you compare these with the historic trend, you see that indeed, there is no real major excess deaths in 2022 not explanable by covid
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But here is the interesting thing: There is hardly any excess mortality unexplainable by demographics / covid among the 65+
BUT
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BUT
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There is plenty of excess deaths in the <65 age band!
And these excess deaths suddenly came through in Fall 2021 and since April 2022
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And these excess deaths suddenly came through in Fall 2021 and since April 2022
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Let's dive a little deeper into the age bands
As you see, what happens is that there are no / possibly negative excess deaths once covid is removed among the 65+
But there could be some, in particular in the 15-44
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As you see, what happens is that there are no / possibly negative excess deaths once covid is removed among the 65+
But there could be some, in particular in the 15-44
5/
One could now look at these figures of the <44 and think that the reason for these excess deaths could be vaccine related
Well, it does absolutely not match the pattern ... while covid DOES match the pattern
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Well, it does absolutely not match the pattern ... while covid DOES match the pattern
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In order to see this, I looked at deaths vs. expected and covid for the 0-44 and smoothed the data on 5 week averages
What comes through is that the unexplained excess deaths always come in combination with covid waves in 2020 and 2021 ...
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What comes through is that the unexplained excess deaths always come in combination with covid waves in 2020 and 2021 ...
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while, in 2022, after another spike in Jan-Feb (when Omicron entered the arena), the excess deaths then suddenly jumped up as of April ...
/ when the recent issues with the NHS started
/ at a moment when these age bands were not elligible for any new boosters
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/ when the recent issues with the NHS started
/ at a moment when these age bands were not elligible for any new boosters
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Could these unexplained excess deaths be the result of delayed treatment as the NHS was fighting covid?
There will undoubtedly be some deaths resulting from delayed treatment but these will not occur with a pattern of "sudden increase and then flat" as seen since April
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There will undoubtedly be some deaths resulting from delayed treatment but these will not occur with a pattern of "sudden increase and then flat" as seen since April
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So everything points at the pressures on the NHS as being the trigger for these unexpected excess deaths
This adds more elements to something which is being widely suspected, among others recently by @ActuaryByDay
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This adds more elements to something which is being widely suspected, among others recently by @ActuaryByDay
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So the story is a bit more complex than put in the press:
/ Compared to pre-pandemic years, there is little excess deaths unexplainable by covid
/ But this is the result of quite some excess deaths among the youth and lower than expected deaths among the older generations
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/ Compared to pre-pandemic years, there is little excess deaths unexplainable by covid
/ But this is the result of quite some excess deaths among the youth and lower than expected deaths among the older generations
11/
And the analysis I did here adds more water to the mill that the reason for the unexplained excess deaths lies mainly with the issues faced by the NHS (and not vaccines or delayed treatment)
END
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cc: @rachelschraer @ShaunLintern @robertcuffe @Rebeccasmt @BBCHughPym
Following your reports, I take the liberty to tag you as this may help you in your reporting around excess deaths: There is a bit of an additional layer of complexity :-)
Following your reports, I take the liberty to tag you as this may help you in your reporting around excess deaths: There is a bit of an additional layer of complexity :-)
