Thread by Nick Vanosdol
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- Dec 14, 2022
- #Nuclearpower #Energy
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Everyone's abuzz re: nuclear fusion.
It’s fun to get excited by the headlines:
• Limitless energy!
• A panacea for our problems!
• The U.S. is still the 🐐 at innovation!
While amazing, the latest news doesn't mean any of those things. Let's break down the 'breakthrough':
It’s fun to get excited by the headlines:
• Limitless energy!
• A panacea for our problems!
• The U.S. is still the 🐐 at innovation!
While amazing, the latest news doesn't mean any of those things. Let's break down the 'breakthrough':
You may have seen the headlines. Or the breathless tweets.
Researchers at the National Ignition Facility ('NIF') at achieved a "breakthrough" in nuclear fusion.
They did so using the world's largest laser to bombard a perfectly spherical pellet of hydrogen plasma. Badass!
Researchers at the National Ignition Facility ('NIF') at achieved a "breakthrough" in nuclear fusion.
They did so using the world's largest laser to bombard a perfectly spherical pellet of hydrogen plasma. Badass!
In general, nuclear fusion seeks to replicate the Sun’s power.
When particles fuse, they release energy.
In the core of the Sun, nuclear fusion reactions are ongoing, w/ hydrogen atoms fusing into helium atoms.
When atoms fuse, they release energy.
When particles fuse, they release energy.
In the core of the Sun, nuclear fusion reactions are ongoing, w/ hydrogen atoms fusing into helium atoms.
When atoms fuse, they release energy.
If you get nothing else out of today’s newsletter, let it be this.
Several unique approaches aim to create and control fusion reactions *on Earth.*
When people say ‘nuclear fusion,’ beyond the basics, they may be referring to *very* different processes.
Several unique approaches aim to create and control fusion reactions *on Earth.*
When people say ‘nuclear fusion,’ beyond the basics, they may be referring to *very* different processes.
2 main approaches for fusion on Earth = magnetic confinement & inertial confinement.
Inertial confinement involves holding the target plasma in a containment capsule & bombarding it w/ lasers or other devices to stimulate fusion.
That's what the NIF works on (in this room 👇)
Inertial confinement involves holding the target plasma in a containment capsule & bombarding it w/ lasers or other devices to stimulate fusion.
That's what the NIF works on (in this room 👇)
Notably, most private firms pursuing commercial fusion energy don't do inertial confinement.
Inertial confinement is a *discrete* process; fusion happens when the lasers fire.
To build a power plant w/ inertial confinement, you'd need to fire lasers many times a minute.
Inertial confinement is a *discrete* process; fusion happens when the lasers fire.
To build a power plant w/ inertial confinement, you'd need to fire lasers many times a minute.
Rather, most private firms work on some version of magnetic confinement fusion.
Their processes use magnets to create & confine a *continuous* plasma in which fusion can occur.
If electricity is your end goal, all else equal, a continuous process is much preferrable.
Their processes use magnets to create & confine a *continuous* plasma in which fusion can occur.
If electricity is your end goal, all else equal, a continuous process is much preferrable.
So what did NIF actually achieve?
They achieved what's dubbed 'fusion ignition,' i.e., creating a self-sustaining burning plasma.
They fired 2.05 megajoules (MJ) of energy into a target via laser & reaped 3.15 MJ of fusion energy output
That's ~150% yield at the target level
They achieved what's dubbed 'fusion ignition,' i.e., creating a self-sustaining burning plasma.
They fired 2.05 megajoules (MJ) of energy into a target via laser & reaped 3.15 MJ of fusion energy output
That's ~150% yield at the target level
Notably, this ignition / net energy gain is also *only* at the level of the target.
Powering up the laser itself required 300 MJ ‘from the wall,’ as it were.
The result was a ~2 MJ laser shot that produced ~3 MJ of energy. Still a net loss of energy at the system level.
Powering up the laser itself required 300 MJ ‘from the wall,’ as it were.
The result was a ~2 MJ laser shot that produced ~3 MJ of energy. Still a net loss of energy at the system level.
Is this an important milestone?
Yes, ignition is in the National 'Ignition' Facility's name, after all.
But it doesn't mean all that much for the roadmap to a nuclear fusion power plant. As we've noted, most firms on that path don't work on inertial confinement!
Yes, ignition is in the National 'Ignition' Facility's name, after all.
But it doesn't mean all that much for the roadmap to a nuclear fusion power plant. As we've noted, most firms on that path don't work on inertial confinement!
Dr. Kim Budil, director of the LLNL, noted the timeline to commercialization remains long herself in the press conference where the results were announced:
Further, private firms working on magnetic confinement don’t typically disclose much at all about where they’re at.
I spoke to one representative of a magnetic fusion firm yesterday & they noted it’s ‘definitely possible’ firms have achieved energy gain & didn't say anything.
I spoke to one representative of a magnetic fusion firm yesterday & they noted it’s ‘definitely possible’ firms have achieved energy gain & didn't say anything.
In sum?
What NIF accomplished is definitely an amazing feat of physics.
It requires insane lasers, diagnostic tech, *perfectly spherical* fuel pellets, & much more.
But it's not *all* that relevant for fusion processes that might generate electricity for the grid soonest.
What NIF accomplished is definitely an amazing feat of physics.
It requires insane lasers, diagnostic tech, *perfectly spherical* fuel pellets, & much more.
But it's not *all* that relevant for fusion processes that might generate electricity for the grid soonest.
IMO, it's important not to overhype or mischaracterize these types of advances.
The first cleantech movement this century ended in an ugly bust.
Clear comms & balanced expectations should help ensure that doesn't happen again decade.
The first cleantech movement this century ended in an ugly bust.
Clear comms & balanced expectations should help ensure that doesn't happen again decade.
Curious about the cover photo on this thread?
It's an illustration rendering DeepMind's work to use their AI to help control plasma instability.
'Learned plasma control' is of increasing relevance in fusion science. Fusion 🤝 AI.
www.deepmind.com/blog/accelerating-fusion-science-through-learned-plasma-control
It's an illustration rendering DeepMind's work to use their AI to help control plasma instability.
'Learned plasma control' is of increasing relevance in fusion science. Fusion 🤝 AI.
www.deepmind.com/blog/accelerating-fusion-science-through-learned-plasma-control
