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A lot of SBF conspiracy theories are circulating.
There's a far simpler explanation for what's going on without having to invoke the deep state:
There's a far simpler explanation for what's going on without having to invoke the deep state:
First, it's easy to fall into conspiratorial thinking when it comes to this SBF media disaster.
Because when it comes to highly competent, well-practiced pathological liars, it's very nearly impossible to tell when they are being honest.
Because when it comes to highly competent, well-practiced pathological liars, it's very nearly impossible to tell when they are being honest.
There are roughly two prevailing assessments of SBF's behavior:
a) The simple jack theory: he's dumb, incompetent, keeps making mistakes, and is incriminating himself in every interview
b) Sociopath: he's TRYING to make it look like he made mistakes, but clearly he's lying
a) The simple jack theory: he's dumb, incompetent, keeps making mistakes, and is incriminating himself in every interview
b) Sociopath: he's TRYING to make it look like he made mistakes, but clearly he's lying
Bill Ackman and Kevin O'Leary clearly fall into category (a): they see SBF as pathetic and sad and incompetent, but broadly well-intentioned.
Almost all of crypto Twitter falls into category (b): we see him as manipulative and deceitful and irredeemable.
Almost all of crypto Twitter falls into category (b): we see him as manipulative and deceitful and irredeemable.
So when the "he's obviously a sociopath" people see others falling for the guileless moron play, it's easy to think:
See!! This is OBVIOUSLY a gigantic media conspiracy. He's a deep-state plant who paid off all the news outlets and O'Leary and Ackman.
See!! This is OBVIOUSLY a gigantic media conspiracy. He's a deep-state plant who paid off all the news outlets and O'Leary and Ackman.
And that's because, for folks convinced he's lying, everything he does is plainly in service of the lie.
How can you possibly believe anything he's said when there's empirical evidence to the contrary?
Clearly, the only way you can believe him is if you've been paid.
How can you possibly believe anything he's said when there's empirical evidence to the contrary?
Clearly, the only way you can believe him is if you've been paid.
The thing is, Occam's razor explanation is way simpler:
It's basically impossible for the media NOT to platform drama. The media is in the business of engagement, not truth.
And FTX is the juiciest business fraud story to come around since, well, ever.
It's basically impossible for the media NOT to platform drama. The media is in the business of engagement, not truth.
And FTX is the juiciest business fraud story to come around since, well, ever.
So they are coordinated: on milking this event for as much money as possible.
And in the process, putting millions of eyeballs on this kid who now has the chance to play-act his way out of fraud and into something like "I made a big oopsie and I'm sad about it."
And in the process, putting millions of eyeballs on this kid who now has the chance to play-act his way out of fraud and into something like "I made a big oopsie and I'm sad about it."
That's why he's borderline bragging about not managing risk:
He's shifting the story from provable malice and criminal intent to sorry incompetence.
He's shifting the story from provable malice and criminal intent to sorry incompetence.
But the fact of the matter is, prosecutors and bankruptcy courts and forensic accountants genuinely don't give a shit what he says.
They don't care about eyeballs--their jobs literally depend on truth-telling and fact-finding.
He will burn.
They don't care about eyeballs--their jobs literally depend on truth-telling and fact-finding.
He will burn.
And O'Leary and Ackman?
I recognize their response to Sam's apology:
It's compassion.
They feel bad for the kid. They want to believe people when they do wrong and show remorse.
SBF plays the sad little puppy dog well.
That's why sociopaths are so good at what they do.
I recognize their response to Sam's apology:
It's compassion.
They feel bad for the kid. They want to believe people when they do wrong and show remorse.
SBF plays the sad little puppy dog well.
That's why sociopaths are so good at what they do.
It's naive optimism.
The kind of optimism that believes that fresh-out-of-MIT traders can make billions in a competitive market.
That a hedge fund and exchange founded by the same person are arms-length.
That this whole thing was ultimately for society's benefit.
The kind of optimism that believes that fresh-out-of-MIT traders can make billions in a competitive market.
That a hedge fund and exchange founded by the same person are arms-length.
That this whole thing was ultimately for society's benefit.
So what's your job?
Hold the media's feet to the fire.
Make it known they are softening up to a criminal, allowing him to spread a false narrative that he was innocent and careless, rather than deceitful.
And ultimately--evil.
Hold the media's feet to the fire.
Make it known they are softening up to a criminal, allowing him to spread a false narrative that he was innocent and careless, rather than deceitful.
And ultimately--evil.
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Ari Paul ⛓️ @AriDavidPaul
·
Dec 2, 2022
Nice thread and agree.