I haven't tweeted about Ukraine in a while, and the battlefield has been (relatively) static for almost a month, but there are things happening that signal long term direction, most of it favoring Ukraine. A 🧵. 1/n

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I'll lead with the bad part first. As I mentioned in a previous thread, I expected conditions around Bakhmut to continue to deteriorate and Ukraine to give ground as Russian troops from Kherson arrive. It's a bloody affair of trenches and artillery. 2/n www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/trenches-endless-mud-and-death-the-battle-of-bakhmut.html

But, the Russian advances are incremental against a goal that has no real strategic value anymore. I believe Bakhmut is now mostly just to create a (pyrrhic) victory to boost morale, and for Wagner to use it to gain more political (and monetary) power. 3/n

It's pyrrhic because of the Russian casualties, and the fact that Bakhmut is already leveled and most of the people fled. I also believe that Russian casualties are significantly heavier than Ukrainian ones. This has been a matter of debate, but I have some receipts. 4/n

Some NATO folks have claimed that both sides have suffered roughly 100,000 casualties (KIA/WIA/MIA). Eh... maybe? But there's things to consider.

I've been told by a source that the Ukrainian figure includes civilians. 5/n

There's also the matter of WIA vs. KIA ratio. Russian battlefield medicine is terrible. We also have tons of video of them just leaving wounded people to die. Ukraine denies these figures vehemently, and has generally been more truthful that Russia. 6/n www.newsweek.com/ukraine-releases-official-russia-war-death-toll-1764233

Additionally, Russia's strategy is to put mobiks and prisoners out front as meat in human wave attacks to preserve what professional forces they have left. Reportedly RUs prison population has dropped by 25%, and another round of mobilization is coming 7/n www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/27/moscows-reliance-human-wave-tactics-catastrophe-russias-wor...

Ukraine is attempting to win by conserving forces, while training up new professional ones in the UK and Germany.

Thus, it is my opinion that Russia is suffering far more KIA than Ukraine, and that it's not sustainable for several reasons. 8/n

First, someone has to keep the lights on back in the USSR (err, I mean Russia). Mobilizing your work force to go die in Ukraine means they're not at home doing the things necessary to keep society functioning. Eventually the system suffers. 9/n

Then there's morale issues. Mobiks are starting to realize that there's no end to the war in sight, no one ever gets rotated home, they're all disposable, and that the only way they're seeing mom or the wife again is from inside a zinc-lined box. 10/n www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C7tyePkOJs

There's also winter weather. We're seeing quite a few videos suggesting that Russian troops, are dying of hypothermia. This is due to poor training, poor equipment, and general lack of concern by Russian leadership for "disposable" troops. 11/n www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/27/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/?s...

This is only going to get worse as the ground freezes, and temperatures drop even more in the south (and not just Svatove). I see little evidence that Russia is doing anything to alter the equation (better training, equipment, or change in attitudes by leadership). 12/n

There was never an intention to keep these people alive. But, every one that dies means more equipment lost, meaning that they'll be dipping further and further into old Soviet stores. The entire Russian calculus is that Ukraine will run out of people and artillery first. 13/n

Way back at the beginning of the war, I mentioned that we were going to find out if public opinion could eventually end a war in an anocracy (Russia). Well, Russian's are not that supportive now, and it's likely to get worse as casualties mount. 14/n meduza.io/feature/2022/11/30/za-peregovory-s-ukrainoy-vystupayut-55-rossiyan-za-prodolzhenie-voyny-to...

Which brings us to a couple of rays of hope here for Ukraine. First is that they have managed to set up their own production line of 152mm artillery shells. Despite massive western aid, most of their tubes are still Soviet-standard 122mm and 152mm. 15/n finance.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-ministry-defence-shows-ukrainian-113700057.html

The US has steadfastly refused to proved Ukraine with ATACMS. However, there are other munitions coming online that could boost the range of HIMARS, including the GMLRs ER, and the ground launched SDB. 16/n www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-would-double-ukraines-precision-str...

The latter is exciting, because it relies on munitions that are already readily available (M26 rocket motors+GBU-39B). Both systems would extend HIMARS range from 80 out to ~150 km, further complicating / worsening Russian logistics. We could (maybe) see these this spring 17/n

The US is also considering dramatically expanding training of Ukrainian troops in Germany, to augment what the UK is already doing. US officers I have spoken with have been impressed how far Ukraine has come since 2014, shifting from Soviet to NATO. 18/n

www.cnn.com/2022/11/30/politics/us-military-expanding-training-ukraine

Then there's the promise that Ukraine will join NATO in the future. While this doesn't help much immediately, it signals intent, as well as opens the door a bit for cooperation and coordination now. It also exposes a fundamental truth: Russia has lost already. 19/n

Even if the shooting stopped this instant, and Russia kept all the currently occupied land (it won't), it's lost half its conventional capability or more, and it won't be reconstituted for decades. It's field officer corps is shattered. 20/n

The mobiks who go home will return remembering how they were used as meat, and possibly missing appendages from frostbite. The Russian economy is sanctioned and growth limited. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO (as soon as Hungary ratifies). 21/n

Ukraine will join NATO. NATO countries take the Russian threat seriously again, and are ramping up defense spending and readiness. (I can't emphasize enough how Sweden and Finland make Russian ambitions in the Baltics almost impossible) 22/n

Russian casualties over the winter are going to be brutal, and a second wave of mobilization in January is going to be very unpopular, while exacerbating manpower shortages inside Russia. Word of people freezing to death will work its way back to the populace. 23/n

Russian morale is already terrible. They're employing blocking units. There's no washing machines left to steal, metaphorically. Neither side is interested in suing for peace (though Russia would if they were smart, the situation won't get better for them). 24/n

Ukraine might even be able to free up troops protecting Odesa.

The TL;DR: It's going to be a long, cold, dark winter, but more so for Russia. 25/n www.intellinews.com/moldovan-president-calls-for-all-russian-troops-to-leave-the-country-257244/

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