Thread
25 myths about extreme weather, refuted
With Hurricane Ian, the media have once again put forward the narrative that fossil fuels make extreme weather danger worse—and that fossil fuel supporters like @GovRonDesantis are to blame.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
🧵👇
With Hurricane Ian, the media have once again put forward the narrative that fossil fuels make extreme weather danger worse—and that fossil fuel supporters like @GovRonDesantis are to blame.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
🧵👇
Myth 1: The world is experiencing unprecedented danger from extreme weather thanks to fossil fuels.
Truth: The world is experiencing unprecedented *safety* from extreme weather thanks to FFs—because FFs' *climate mastery benefits* overwhelm any negative climate side-effects.
Truth: The world is experiencing unprecedented *safety* from extreme weather thanks to FFs—because FFs' *climate mastery benefits* overwhelm any negative climate side-effects.
Myth 2: The media and its designated experts are accurately reporting on fossil fuels and extreme weather.
Truth: The media and its "experts" are:
1. totally ignoring how FFs make us safer than ever from extreme weather
2. wildly overstating FFs' negative impact on weather.
Truth: The media and its "experts" are:
1. totally ignoring how FFs make us safer than ever from extreme weather
2. wildly overstating FFs' negative impact on weather.
Myth 3: The effect of fossil fuels on extreme weather danger is solely negative.
Truth: Not only can warming from FFs have significant benefits (fewer cold deaths) but the low-cost energy FFs provide for billions gives us an unprecedented ability to *master* extreme weather.
Truth: Not only can warming from FFs have significant benefits (fewer cold deaths) but the low-cost energy FFs provide for billions gives us an unprecedented ability to *master* extreme weather.
Fossil fuels have made us far safer from extreme weather by providing low-cost energy for the amazing machines that protect us against storms, protect us against extreme temperatures, and alleviate drought. Deaths from extreme weather have decreased 98% over the last century! 
Myth 4: We don't need fossil fuels to protect ourselves from extreme weather—we can just use alternatives.
Truth: As Europe is illustrating, there is no near-term replacement for FFs for the 1/4 of the world that uses abundant energy—let alone the 3/4 of the world that doesn't.
Truth: As Europe is illustrating, there is no near-term replacement for FFs for the 1/4 of the world that uses abundant energy—let alone the 3/4 of the world that doesn't.
Fossil fuels will for decades remain uniquely able to provide low-cost, reliable energy to billions. That's why FFs are 80% of world energy and still growing.
Restricting FF use means far less energy for climate mastery activities such as heating, cooling, and irrigation.
Restricting FF use means far less energy for climate mastery activities such as heating, cooling, and irrigation.
Myth 5: The media and its designated experts are accurately reporting the scientific linking of fossil fuel use and hurricanes.
Truth: This "reporting" is riddled with
1. deliberate misrepresentations (e.g., hurricane frequency)
2. biases (e.g., only reporting negative links)
Truth: This "reporting" is riddled with
1. deliberate misrepresentations (e.g., hurricane frequency)
2. biases (e.g., only reporting negative links)
Myth 6: Media claims about increasing hurricane frequency are accurate.
Truth: Leading media outlets have deliberately misrepresented the flat long-term hurricane trend. E.g., the @nytimes cherry-picking a starting point—the low point of 1980—to make a flat trend seem upward.
Truth: Leading media outlets have deliberately misrepresented the flat long-term hurricane trend. E.g., the @nytimes cherry-picking a starting point—the low point of 1980—to make a flat trend seem upward.
Leading media outlets have also deliberately ignored statements by NOAA and the IPCC about how any increases in hurricane frequency in records are likely due to increasing reporting, not actual frequency. 
Here are the latest data on global hurricane frequency and intensity from a 2022 paper (Klotzbach et al.). Does this remotely resemble what trusted media sources tell you? 
Here's recent US data for landfalling hurricanes, both overall and major. Again, consuming the @nytimes and other trusted sources would you have any idea that the data looked like this? 
Myth 7: Hurricanes are expected to get more frequent as temperatures rise.
Truth: Mainstream science estimates that hurricanes will become less frequent as temperatures rise.
Truth: Mainstream science estimates that hurricanes will become less frequent as temperatures rise.
Myth 8: Hurricane intensity is expected to get catastrophically more intense as temperatures rise.
Truth: Mainstream estimates say hurricanes will be less frequent and between 1-10% more intense. This is not at all catastrophic if we continue our fossil-fueled climate mastery.
Truth: Mainstream estimates say hurricanes will be less frequent and between 1-10% more intense. This is not at all catastrophic if we continue our fossil-fueled climate mastery.
Myth 9: Media-cited research on extreme weather is unbiased.
Truth: Extreme weather research is riddled with biases. In addition to ignoring fossil-fueled climate mastery, many researchers have overtly political motives and ignore positive impacts of fossil fuels on weather.
Truth: Extreme weather research is riddled with biases. In addition to ignoring fossil-fueled climate mastery, many researchers have overtly political motives and ignore positive impacts of fossil fuels on weather.
Myth 10: Climate attribution scientists have no political bias.
Truth: Certain climate attribution "scientists" admit that they are motivated by political goals and shape their "science" accordingly. E.g., media favorite Friederike Otto wants climate research "on the offensive."
Truth: Certain climate attribution "scientists" admit that they are motivated by political goals and shape their "science" accordingly. E.g., media favorite Friederike Otto wants climate research "on the offensive."
Myth 11: Extreme weather "attribution" researchers are simply trying to understand extreme weather and found fossil fuels guilty.
Truth: Extreme weather "attribution" only looks for negative impacts of FFs on extreme weather, brazenly ignoring any *avoided* negative impacts.
Truth: Extreme weather "attribution" only looks for negative impacts of FFs on extreme weather, brazenly ignoring any *avoided* negative impacts.
One of the few climate researchers who is openly looking at the full impact of fossil-fueled climate change, including potential avoided damage, is meteorologist and hurricane expert @RyanMaue. What are the chances we see his point about avoided hurricanes in the mainstream news? 
Myth 12: Attributions of X% of an extreme weather event to humans are credible.
Truth: Not only are many attributors clearly biased, but no precise estimate of this kind is possible given today’s climate modeling limits, where mainstream models hugely diverge from one another.
Truth: Not only are many attributors clearly biased, but no precise estimate of this kind is possible given today’s climate modeling limits, where mainstream models hugely diverge from one another.
Myth 13: Fossil fuels made Hurricane Ian worse for FL.
Truth: While we can’t know exactly how Ian was different because of human climate impacts, we know that without FFs FL would be a third-world place that Ian would have utterly devastated.
Truth: While we can’t know exactly how Ian was different because of human climate impacts, we know that without FFs FL would be a third-world place that Ian would have utterly devastated.
We also don't know how many hurricanes the US East Coast and other vulnerable spots dodged or will avoid thanks to global warming. Models cannot give us this information and since it's not a negative, no mainstream researcher in the field is looking for ways to find out.
Myth 14: Thanks to fossil fuels more people are dying from extreme weather.
Truth: Thanks to FFs more people are *not dying* from extreme weather—and everything else. Fossil-fueled prosperity has driven climate disaster deaths down 98% and life expectancy up by decades.
Truth: Thanks to FFs more people are *not dying* from extreme weather—and everything else. Fossil-fueled prosperity has driven climate disaster deaths down 98% and life expectancy up by decades.
Myth 15: Thanks to fossil fuels we are suffering overwhelming damage from extreme weather.
Truth: The trend of real weather damage is flat—despite many factors increasing vulnerability, like increasing coastal populations and bad incentives from government bailout policies.
Truth: The trend of real weather damage is flat—despite many factors increasing vulnerability, like increasing coastal populations and bad incentives from government bailout policies.
3 keys to understanding climate damage stats:
1. Damage should be measured % of GDP not compared $-for-$ to a poorer past with less wealth at risk. (E.g., Miami Beach)
2. More people today choose to live in damage-prone areas.
3. Government bailout policies increase damage.
1. Damage should be measured % of GDP not compared $-for-$ to a poorer past with less wealth at risk. (E.g., Miami Beach)
2. More people today choose to live in damage-prone areas.
3. Government bailout policies increase damage.
Myth 16: Extreme temperatures are a bigger danger than ever thanks to fossil fuels.
Truth: Extreme temperatures are a smaller danger than ever thanks to fossil fueled heating and AC—plus the net-benefits of warming in a world where far more people die of cold than heat.
Truth: Extreme temperatures are a smaller danger than ever thanks to fossil fueled heating and AC—plus the net-benefits of warming in a world where far more people die of cold than heat.
Myth 17: Storms are a bigger danger than ever thanks to fossil fuels.
Truth: Storms are a smaller danger than ever thanks to the fossil-fueled machines that build sturdy buildings, as well as fossil-fueled weather warning systems and fossil-fueled disaster relief efforts.
Truth: Storms are a smaller danger than ever thanks to the fossil-fueled machines that build sturdy buildings, as well as fossil-fueled weather warning systems and fossil-fueled disaster relief efforts.
Myth 18: Drought is a bigger danger than ever thanks to fossil fuels.
Truth: Drought is a smaller danger than ever thanks to fossil-fueled irrigation, crop transport, and agriculture. With more such mastery our crop productivity can continue to improve.
Truth: Drought is a smaller danger than ever thanks to fossil-fueled irrigation, crop transport, and agriculture. With more such mastery our crop productivity can continue to improve.
Myth 19: Floods are a bigger danger than ever thanks to fossil fuels.
Truth: Floods are a smaller danger than ever thanks to fossil-fueled flood control infrastructure and disaster relief.
Truth: Floods are a smaller danger than ever thanks to fossil-fueled flood control infrastructure and disaster relief.
Myth 20: The rich, fossil-fueled world has ruined the poor world by making them vulnerable to extreme weather.
Truth: Fossil fuels have made everyone more prosperous and less vulnerable to extreme weather.
To be even better off the poor world needs more fossil fuels!
Truth: Fossil fuels have made everyone more prosperous and less vulnerable to extreme weather.
To be even better off the poor world needs more fossil fuels!
Myth 21: We can expect fossil fuels to make extreme weather far more dangerous in the future.
Truth: Fossil fuels’ climate mastery benefits have far overwhelmed any negative side-effects on extreme weather for 100+ years and there’s every reason to expect this to continue.
Truth: Fossil fuels’ climate mastery benefits have far overwhelmed any negative side-effects on extreme weather for 100+ years and there’s every reason to expect this to continue.
Myth 22: Rapidly eliminating FFs will make us safer from climate disasters.
Truth: FFs provide uniquely cost-effective energy in a world that needs far more energy. Rapidly eliminating FFs means far less energy, which means catastrophic climate impotence—and mass death.
Truth: FFs provide uniquely cost-effective energy in a world that needs far more energy. Rapidly eliminating FFs means far less energy, which means catastrophic climate impotence—and mass death.
Myth 23: Opposing the “Inflation Reduction Act” makes extreme weather worse.
Truth: Not only do FFs make us safer than ever from extreme weather but the subsidy-laden IRA doesn’t make alternatives competitive—which is the only way to lower emissions.
Truth: Not only do FFs make us safer than ever from extreme weather but the subsidy-laden IRA doesn’t make alternatives competitive—which is the only way to lower emissions.
Myth 24: When a major storm hits, politicians like @GovRonDeSantis should commit to anti-fossil-fuel policies.
Truth: That would be pseudoscientific symbolism, and would make their constituents poorer and more vulnerable going forward. Like Europe, which is now afraid of winter.
Truth: That would be pseudoscientific symbolism, and would make their constituents poorer and more vulnerable going forward. Like Europe, which is now afraid of winter.
It is absolutely shameful that the political opponents of @GovRonDeSantis are trying to blame him for the tragedy of Hurricane Ian given that 1) the pro-freedom, pro-energy policies he supports *lessened* the tragedy and 2) his focus now is where it should be: hastening recovery.
Myth 25: The next extreme weather event you hear about would have been much better if we had rapidly eliminated fossil fuels.
Truth: You are far safer from that event thanks to fossil fuels. And you are also alive with your current life expectancy thanks to fossil fuels.
Truth: You are far safer from that event thanks to fossil fuels. And you are also alive with your current life expectancy thanks to fossil fuels.
Bonus Myth: A FL community didn’t lose power because it’s 100% solar.
Truth: The wealthy community isn’t 100% solar at all.
It has a lot of solar arrays but gets grid power from the mostly-gas FL grid. It avoided blackouts due to high-$ measures like burying power lines.
Truth: The wealthy community isn’t 100% solar at all.
It has a lot of solar arrays but gets grid power from the mostly-gas FL grid. It avoided blackouts due to high-$ measures like burying power lines.
If you're new to my work, follow me @AlexEpstein for extreme clarity on energy, environmental, and climate issues from a humanist perspective.
Also, subscribe to my newsletter, featuring lots of concise, powerful, well-referenced energy talking points.
alexepstein.substack.com
Also, subscribe to my newsletter, featuring lots of concise, powerful, well-referenced energy talking points.
alexepstein.substack.com
To learn all the facts about fossil fuels and extreme weather read my new book Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas—Not Less.
Use FossilFuture.com to find the best price. If you're a student/educator you can get a free copy.
Use FossilFuture.com to find the best price. If you're a student/educator you can get a free copy.
To read "25 myths about extreme weather, refuted" in article form, plus get all the references, go here:
alexepstein.substack.com/p/25-myths-about-extreme-weather-refuted
alexepstein.substack.com/p/25-myths-about-extreme-weather-refuted
