Crypto Friday 🚀🪔🍾

A macro-based take on Crypto moves.. A thread

1/n

MERGE MERGE MERGE MERGE.. Everyone's talking about it, even I have have tweeted about it (which says a lot given that I am NOT a crypto guy) and mainstrem media is full of stories..

Is this a classic buy the rumour, sell the fact situation?

2/n

ETH is up 10.7% on the week, much more than other digital assets and the relative trade in ETH vs. BTC continues to work

3/n

ETH/BTC is interestingly pretty correlated to the energy story..

When Nat Gas prices rise, BTC is hurt more than ETH, which makes me less convinced that the merge will prove to be a sell event, at least in relative terms versus BTC

4/n

I remain unconvinced of crypto an inflation hedge.. It is rather a hedge against a much bigger monetary base and the correlation to CPI is clearly negative

Signs of QE? Buy Crypto..
Signs of real life inflation (not asset inflation), sell crypto..

5/n

My bet in Crypto space remains long ETH/BTC, but I happy to take feedback on perceived positioning..

Remember to follow my thoughts in the biweekly newsletter Stenos Signals..

Have a great weekend!

6/n
andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-11-inflationistas