Thread by Cozomo de’ Medici

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1/ In XCOPY's work, “All Time High in the City,” the grim reaper rows a trader through a sea of blood.

Minted on April 8th, 2018. A day when ETH is priced at $400. Just weeks earlier, it was $1400.

A bloody ride is right...
2/ Gm. If we haven't met yet, my name is Cozomo de’ Medici. And if you had told me in November, when ETH was $4800, that it would be $1150 today, I would have told you you were f-ing crazy
3/ But here we are. Right back on that boat. Our personal “all time high” net worth now just a memory.

What happens next, to our precious jpegs? Do we go to zero?

Or does the art rise from the ash?
4/ To get an idea of what may happen, many are looking to the crypto crash of 2018.

But I feel a better place to look... may be...

The Great Comic Book Bubble of the ‘90s
5/ Comic books have been around for 100 years. Up until the early ‘90s, if 10,000 people bought and read a comic book, it was a big success.

Up until then, comic books were mostly purchased for one reason - to read.

Then one day, everything changes.
6/ A lucky hoarder discovers “Action Comics # 1” - the first appearance of Superman - in mom’s basement. It sells it for over $1 million USD.

Then the same with “Detective Comics # 27," the first appearance of Batman.

Another seven-figure sale and the media goes crazy.
7/ The world starts looking for other comics, that have the first appearance of other heroes."Experts" start analyzing and collecting new releases.

Perhaps that day’s new character is the Superman of tomorrow... and will be worth millions one day.
8/ And so the mania begins. Normies hear stories of average Joe collectors getting rich, and proceed to ape in. Demand increases, so new comic makers sprout up.

Average sales numbers of a hot comic book go from 10,000 issues, to 100,000 issues, to 1 million.
9/ Publishers feed the beast. Creating rare, “limited editions.” Special covers. Hologram comics. And “gold” versions. Making for bidding wars and more record sales.

Is this sounding familiar yet?
10/ New buyers continue to fomo in, wanting their piece of the pump. The savvy "sweep" comics by the crate, to increase odds of getting a rare. Crates are often "flipped" to the next speculator for big profit, before even being opened.

Is this sounding familiar yet?
11/ Soon, the mania trickles over to comic book authors & artists.

Months earlier, they'd be thrilled to work on a book that sells 10k issues.

Now, they won’t touch anything that doesn’t have guaranteed sales of 300k.

Is this sounding familiar yet?
12/ Then one day, the last sucker buys in. The bubble bursts. There is no more liquidity.

Supply has exceeded demand, and 9 of 10 comic book stores shut down. Even Marvel Comics declares bankruptcy. True story.

(more here if curious: screenrant.com/the-comicspeculator-bubble-explained)
13/ And now, today, a comic book is considered a strong success if it sells...

10,000 issues.

The same as before the great comic book bubble.

Why back to 10,000? Well, that's about how many actual comic book *readers* there are.
14/ Rare, "blue chip" comic books still hold value. But people just don’t "invest" in new comic books, all that much, any more.

Will NFTs be the same?
15/ Now I'm sure as I was just sharing about the comic bubble, you saw the similarities to the last 12 months in NFT. Simply swap out superheroes for poo goblins and monkey pics.

But you may be saying... "Uncle Cozomo, we here are different. We are here... for the art!"
16/ That's good. We have something in common. Though you, like me, may have discovered 1/1 art via CryptoPunks, Bored Apes, or your favorite collection.

As top collector @Batsoupyum’s infamous “NFT flow chart” shows…
@batsoupyum 17/ There is no denying that the large-collection mania is what brought many of us here. If things change, does that mean our world of 1/1 digital art changes too?
@batsoupyum 18/ It’s All F-in’ Over

For the first time, I do think there is a non-zero chance that it is all f-ing over, and speculating on large collection NFTs is done.
@batsoupyum 19/ No more investing, and your animal pic is simply your ticket to a show or a party, maybe a merch drop. Perhaps afterwards, your souvenir.

But like a “web 2” ticket, not something you will think of as an investment.
@batsoupyum 20/ However, I do feel there is a better chance these collections continue to reshape culture. Media, film, merch, & music.

And that millions will continue to invest, along for the ride.

But I could be biased, because I love the new stream of people discovering NFTs.
@batsoupyum 21/ And of course… I own a lot of animal pictures.

Today's tech certainly allows holders to get more experiential value than comic books. As they say in every mania...
@batsoupyum 22/ "This time, it's different."

And you know what... it usually is different. The ‘90s comic bubble spawned an era of superhero films that dominated box offices for 20 years.
@batsoupyum 23/ But as you can see, change didn't necessarily mean "up only" or even "up at all" for the initial speculation asset

The tech that sparked the dot com bubble also changed the world. And most dot coms went to zero.
@batsoupyum 24/ Another reason to never invest in any high risk asset, what you can’t afford to lose.
@batsoupyum 25/ But Does It Matter?

If speculation continues, great news for 1/1 art. The more who come for pfp, the more who stay for Fewo, DeeKay, and Claire Silver.

Though no matter what the prices do, here’s one thing I believe strongly:
@batsoupyum 26/ Collectors have an emotional bond with their 1/1s that transcends price.

The value of a DaVinci may fluctuate over the centuries, but a DaVinci is always a DaVinci.
@batsoupyum 27/ And your favorite 1/1 (or genart 1/1) will always give you that special feeling that called you to it in the first place, no matter what the artist’s recent sales numbers.
@batsoupyum 28/ You may check prices out of curiosity, but when you have a piece you love, you know you love it, because you don’t care about the value.

Whereas with a pfp collection, who doesn’t check the floor price constantly?

It’s just how they are designed.
@batsoupyum 29/ Regardless, I think the last few weeks' market action speeds up something I've been preaching for a bit now... that I call...

The Great Divide

You see, while you and I, who are here for the arts, can appreciate and even may own a monkey pic or two…
@batsoupyum 30/ This large-collection mania has kept a great many collectors from entering the space. Especially those I feel will most support 1/1 artists…

Big collectors of contemporary art.

They love the capability a digital canvas brings, but are confused by the chaos.
@batsoupyum 31/ The Great Divide is a forging of new entry path to digital arts. Directly through 1/1s, and also generative.

I feel this digital, non-pfp art category needs a new name. A brand of its own, to stand apart from the speculation.
@batsoupyum 32/ Good news - the “new name” already exists, and has been with us since at least 2018.

As OG CryptoArtist Van Arman said…


@batsoupyum 33/ As you can see, they are definitely different. And that's great news.

The “New” Digital Gateway Drug: CryptoART

In just the last few weeks, two of the great performers of our time - Jim Carrey and Val Kilmer - entered the space via 1/1 CryptoArt.
@batsoupyum 34/ Madonna chose to drop not a pfp collection, but 3 SuperRare 1/1s of her own (in collab w/ cryptoartist @beeple)

And a few months ago, contemporary art collector & tastemaker Alberto Chehebar bought his very first NFT on SuperRare, a 3D cryptoart sculpture by @DomQwek
@batsoupyum @beeple @DomQwek 35/ The Great Divide is here. CryptoArt is not new, but it is now spreading its wings, attracting a fresh group of aficionados.

New collectors and artists. Who are investing in, and making digital art, for the very first time.


@batsoupyum @beeple @DomQwek 36/ So no matter what the prices do… no matter what the animal pictures do…

I see the popularity of CryptoArt being up only.

~ CdM
@batsoupyum @beeple @DomQwek P.S. This piece was originally published by @SuperRare, for readers of their newsletter. Inspirations came from conversations with my fren @gareb. None of it is meant as investment advice. Never invest what you can't afford to lose, and only buy art you truly love.
@batsoupyum @beeple @DomQwek @SuperRare @gareb P.P.S. If you enjoyed this read, I send out a once-weekly newsletter you can sign up for free at www.MediciMinutes.com

Never spam or pitches, just 5 short "Minutes" of my thoughts, insights, and artists I enjoy
And retweet the first tweet in this thread, here, to help let the world know that cryptoart and NFTs are not always the same👇


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