Everything is going lower!

Do I have your attention?

Good.

I get the sense that almost everyone is expecting the market to go lower. Every time I turn on the financial news, open twitter or read an article, it feels like a deluge of bad news and negative expectations.

There is a camp that reasonably believes we are long overdue for a relief bounce or reversal, but it feels like the majority is convinced that we are going much lower.

I don’t blame them, the world is in a rough state.

They may very well be right.

I understand that negativity sells, that the macro picture is in shambles, and that we are all riding on a leaky ship with a drunkard captain in the Fed at the helm, but the amount of investors confidently waiting for lower lows in the 3rd and 4th quarters feels fishy.

Warren Buffet is buying already, right?

I know that we are at the mercy of a lot of sh*t that we can’t control, but where is all of this bearish euphoria and certainty coming from?

The average investor is seemingly convinced that the easy ticket out of this mess is to just wait and buy lower later in the year.

If we know anything about markets, it’s that nothing is ever that easy.

First off, who comfortably buys the bottom?

Buying the bottom is like staring an executioner straight in the eyes and spitting “F*** You” with all of your heart. It’s like William Wallace screaming “Freeeedoooom” at the end of Braveheart.

It takes a rare person to spot a bottom and an even rarer one to have the courage to act on it with their capital. If it was that easy, we would all be rich.

Every single one of us could just buy the generational lows coming within the next few months and make off like the Rockefellers.

Wouldn’t that be nice? It would, but last time I checked there was no ice skating rink and Christmas Tree in Melker Center.

Maybe this is a rare case where the majority is right and we do get these lower lows. I can almost guarantee that if we do get there, it will be on a volatile path that few expect, including major bull traps and bounces along the way.

Those bounces will likely be enough to convince everyone that the bottom is in and that markets are going back to the moon.

The market is designed to rattle you to your core and dish out max pain.

Fun, right?

Now is not the time to get comfortable. Volatility = opportunity.

The market gods decide what’s next, not us.
We may see lower lows. We may see an extended recession or even a depression.

We also may have already bottomed and this may already be the generational buying opportunity that people are waiting for.

Nobody knows, so be open to anything and act accordingly.

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