As the combined hit of fresh financial sanctions and voluntary boyotts on the Russian economy take their toll, one thing is becoming clear: Russia is unlikely to remain an «energy superpower» for long. Daniel Yergin, one of America’s leading energy pundits, believes Putin has «signed the death warrant» on Russia’s ability to leverage exports for political gain. In a similar vein Mikhail Krutikhin, a Russian energy commentator, notes that as much as 50% of crude oil exports are at risk from importers' and banks' refusal to deal with Russian cargoes due to reputational or secondary sanctions risks. Wherever that figure ends up, the stability of the regime’s political economy, and the influence and power afforded Moscow by dint of its oil wealth are up in the air.

Inevitably, oil production in Russia will decline in&