In the past 2 weeks, many people have commented on Russia’s shockingly poor performance in its war on Ukraine.

How can we make sense of Russia’s military ineffectiveness? Why were these problems not foreseen by analysts prior to the war?

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First, we need to start with background on the concept of "military effectiveness."

The traditional way of measuring mil pwr is to count personnel and equipment, and inputs like the state’s industrial capacity and GNP. By these indicators, Russia’s military looks formidable.2/8

But being militarily effective is about more than having material resources—it's being able to translate those resources into actual fighting power & success in war.

To do that, as I argue in this book, a military has to be able to do three things.3/8

www.sup.org/books/title/?id=9800

1st, it has to ensure its activities across the means-end chain are integrated. Strategy reinforces operational & tactical activity & serves pol. goals.

Russia's done poorly, w/strategy & operational plans poorly integrated w/ an (ostensible) goal of quick regime change.4/8

2nd, an effective military must be responsive to its circumstances, tailoring military activity to its own & adversaries’ strengths & weaknesses.

Russia hasn't done much to compensate for its clear organizational probs. & account for Ukraine’s advantages & superior morale.5/8

3rd, an effective military must be highly skilled. Russia’s weaknesses in maneuver, combined arms & logistics show major deficits.

It also must have cohesive units and motivate soldiers to fight. Desertions by Russian soldiers suggest problems here, too.6/8

The upshot: while Russia can still prevail simply because of its material advantages, that is despite it being militarily ineffective.7/8

So, why didn't more ppl foresee Russia's weaknesses? In part, analysts overemphasize material metrics at expense of qualitative (& difficult to measure) indicators of military effectiveness.

The risk is a serious miscalculation of a military’s true ability to perform in war.8/8