As we ask "how will this end?" one possible answer (more likely than Putin caving or being overthrown) is that the Russian army will start to disintegrate as it did at the end of World War I -- battered, poorly supplied, unable to move forward, not allowed to move backward. 1/

The Russians can keep smashing Ukrainian cities from a distance. But when their troops push in, the Ukrainians kill them. Their supply lines are insecure. As Russia's economy collapses, they will get less help from home. At what point will they vote with their feet for peace? 2/

This may be the least awful of realistic outcomes. We can encourage it by providing the Ukrainians what they need to hold out militarily, while accelerating the crisis in the Russian economy - as Biden is wisely doing. 3/

Some possible next steps:

On the military side, don't underestimate what we're already providing. Ukrainian soldiers are succeeding with the anti-tank and other weapons we continue to give them in large numbers. This operation is far more extensive than anyone thought possible a few weeks ago. 4/

What else would be helpful?
- Helping E. European allies provide Russian-origin equipment (not just planes, but less sexy stuff like anti-aircraft systems).
- Sharing real time intelligence
- Considering airlifts of food/medicine/military supplies if cities are blockaded. 5/

On sanctions -- they are already working!

Adding a ban on oil imports will be mostly symbolic.

Working w/allies to gradually restrict Russian exports globally would be more effective. Congress can require this if needed. Here is a good explainer: 6/

I've also introduced a bill to let the administration use the sanctioned assets of Russian oligarchs to help Ukrainians. The point of sanctions now is not to persuade Putin to back down -- it's to weaken his regime while strengthening Ukraine. 7/
www.businessinsider.com/congress-bill-seize-russian-yachts-sell-for-ukraine-aid-2022-3

The most important thing Congress can do to strengthen sanctions is rarely discussed -- we should better fund the understaffed units at the Treasury and Justice Departments that are scouring the world for the Putin regime's yachts, planes, villas, and $ accounts. 8/

Again, a possible outcome of this strategy is that Russian troops, battered from their front and rear, starved of support from an economically collapsing Russia, will lose their will to fight. And only after the Ukrainian people suffer even more terrible losses. 9/

If this starts to happen, there will be other dangers. We don't know what Putin will do if he feels cornered or defeated.

This is one reason why we should not give him obvious pretexts to make this a US-Russia fight; he must be beaten by Ukrainians. 10/

But let's have some confidence in ourselves as we rally the world behind Ukraine's heroic fight. Putin invasion is heartbreaking and evil, but if he is beaten, the safeguard against dictators changing borders with tanks will emerge stronger, and the world will be safer. End/