Thread by Phillips P. OBrien

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A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar
The Russian Army, like the Soviet Army before it, has manifested significant logistics problems for decades, and if anything the preliminary evidence is that the problem might be worse than expected. You can start with this report. apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA233559
Basically Soviet logistics as shown in Afghanistan were too rigid, top heavy and wedded to doctrine. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. The way Soviet logistics was so road centric (and weak for that) is telling
Since the end of the Cold War, the Russians have undertaken nothing at all close to their deployment to attack Ukraine, which would be a challenge to any force. But is probably doubly for them as their logistical development also seems not to have progressed much.
Indeed the Russian Army now seems to have fallen prey to one of the great temptations of many militaries created by dictators--lots of flashy weapons but little consideration about how to deliver them (few trucks).
Indeed looking at this @WarOnTheRocks estimate, they Russians will struggle at 90 miles from working railheads. And they still suffer from the inflexibility mentioned by earlier reports at Afghanistan.
warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
Here is another article highlighting the significant truck problem faced by the Russians (and their reliance on civilians to keep going--which will be a real handicap in any protracted war in Ukraine). www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/01/14/the-russian-army-depends-on-civilians-to-keep-it-supplied-th...
If anything, early indications in Ukraine are that the Soviet Logistics problems are worse than expected. There are the basic problems of tire maintenance that has doomed some of the most expensive equipment Russia possesses. See @TrentTelenko for a few great threads
There is indications that basic rations have not been kept up to scratch, with soldiers given food seven years out of date, and at the same time running out of food already and having to loot from Ukrainian civilian supplies. inews.co.uk/news/ukraine-russian-troops-low-morale-military-weakness-hinder-putin-invasion-1494160
Clearly there is Ukrainian understanding of these weaknesses, which has led to their very effective and constant efforts to attack Russian convoys--and guess what they are doing. Destroying large numbers of precious Russian trucks.

And if Ukrainian claims are anywhere near the truth, they are destroying some of the most important--fuel trucks. As of today, the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy 60 Russian fuel carriers--which would be a significant blow. www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-claims-over-10-000-russian-soldiers-killed-since-war/2....
One of the reasons the famous 40-mile convoy is such a disaster is that much of it is valuable trucks--which are not probably out of fuel, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud and not salvageable. You can scan the convoy here.

Why does this all matter--it reveals that almost certainly that Russian combat strength started significantly below the stated levels, and is dropping fast as damaged but not destroyed equipment still in Russian hands cant be repaired and resupplied.
And all of this will get worse as Russia's weak link of trucks further wastes away. It is impossible to calculate how far below stated levels of strength Russian forces are because of these logistic difficulties. A very conservative guess would be around 25%
Iam getting that figure from my own calculations in How the War was Won on WWII logistics for the Luftwaffe. Regularly one quarter of Luftwaffe aircraft were out of commission because of basic logistical problems. As the war went on, it was much higher than 25%.
btw, logistic difficulties might also help explain the incredibly deficient performance of the Russian Air Force. Both seeming to have insufficient supplies of directed munitions (thus having to use large numbers of dumb bombs), which means they have to fly low and be shot down.
Also might explain how relatively few Russian planes overall they can maintain in operations. Much fewer in number than expected before the invasion started.

So, we give a very false idea of the realities of war when we talk about number of troops, AFVs, planes that the Russians deployed for the invasion. They started with fewer in combat conditions than we know, and it looks like Russian truck support is suffering hugely.
Logistics, as it always does, will play a significant role in determining this war, right now the signs are not good for Russia, but people are mostly ignoring it and talking, as always, about tanks and planes....
Retweeted this but probably should have put this here. This should terrify the Russians if it means what it could mean. They are already running out of trucks.

Ukrainian path to victory is clear. Go for every Russian truck they can see, particularly fuel trucks. Russian Army will freeze in its tracks.
Btw. Replacing military grade trucks with civilian ones is catastrophic on many levels. You have to stick to better roads, they are less robust and you can’t stock spare parts for all the different models
We might be about to witness a logistic collapse
Well, was not expecting this kind of reaction, a little overwhelmed that there is so much interest in logistics. To give you an example of how logistics worked in WWII, I wrote this chapter for the Cambridge History of the Second World War. www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-history-of-the-second-world-war/logistics-by-land-and-air/...
The same basic issues are at work in Ukraine. The key link is between the large railhead depots at the lauching off point and the forward forces--and the only way to connect them is trucks. It is the single most important limiting factor in operations.
Another interesting visual example of what the Ukrainians seem to be doing (though we need to be careful not to read too much into the pictures we get).

Well, this is interesting. The U.K. MOD’s daily intelligence makes a specific reference to a possible Russian fuel truck shortage having impact.

Can anyone vouch for the accuracy of this video? If it is, and the Russians are already having to scrape up what looks like old Soviet era fuel trucks (see around 20 seconds in), their situation may be more dire than imagined.

The rest of the trucks do not inspire confidence either.
Heck if this continues, Russia might request a NATO no-fly zone to protect their army as it pulls out of Ukraine.
There have been so many questions posed in all the tweets in this thread, that I cant possibly keep track. Can I ask people who have questions on the thread that they want asked to put them in this tweet? I will try to work through them. Tks! I appreciate your interest, really.
Not a bad summary of some of the logistical challenges Russia is facing. Its interesting that more and more this is being discussed.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/how-ukraine-s-rail-network-threw-russia-s-military-off-tra...
This is the exact kind of thing the Ukrainians are doing to devastate Russian movement. The vehicles waiting for this fuel will have no ability to move for much longer and the Russians have fewer vital fuel trucks.

Adding this to the earlier long logistics tweet so they can be consolidated for all who are interested

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