Ukrainian Su-27 fighter aircraft has been destroyed at the airfield near Zhytomyr by Russian precision strikes. https://t.co/WvBZEVoj8j

Thread

Within the last 30 minutes, Russian forces have simultaneously seized control of the capital city’s main airport, launched an amphibious assault on a major city, bombed a city, and completely circumvented Ukraine’s NATO-supplied air defense.

Is the “end of history” over?

Multiple analysts are speechless as they realize literally every Russian amphibious assault force is in play right now. This is a decapitation strike.

BREAKING: Explosions reported in the Chernobyl exclusion zone

BREAKING United States government officials are being moved to hardened bunkers [standard procedure for continuity of government]

civilians are fleeing Kyiv:

Ukraine has taken down at least one Russian plane

Silence from Ukrainian leaders and no response from army could mean the decapitation strike worked? Not sure if this is just a lack of information.

Russian GRAD barrage in Kharkov, this is like a WW1 artillery barrage.

Moscow stock markets have suspended trading

Heard from a credible source that Russian control of Kyiv airport was likely a psy-op to demoralize Ukrainian resistance i.e. didn’t happen

Russian ballistic missile launch

Ukrainian President:

RUMOR: Belarus attacking Ukraine

9:29 local time. Russian troops crossing the Senkivka-Veselivka checkpoint at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

Drawdown in Russia’s stock market visualised. As of right now, the drawdown has surpassed drops during the pandemic & annexation of Crimea

Blue: Now
Purple: Pandemic
Green: Crimea
Yellow: GFC

Long lines at cash machines in Mariupol. Also at grocery stories.

Ukrainian children recording overflight of Russian military planes.

Footage of Russian forces just a few kilometers outside #Kharkiv.

A Kalibr missile hits the Western-most Ivano-Frankivsk airport

Russian KA-50 approaching Ukraine in the cover of the residential buildings from Armyansk Crimea.

Reuters photo captures US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield replying to message from Ukraine's ambassador after Putin declares start of invasion during UNSC address

top message: “I know. I wish I had the news before I ended my remarks. I will ask for the floor again.”

line to use one ATM in Dnipro

Ukrainian army FB page claims to have shot down 5 planes and 1 Russian helicopter in the #Luhansk region.

Russian media reports of amphibious strikes are not thought to be accurate at present

7:30 Odesa: sea - no ships

concerning tweets on the capabilities of American senior political advisors from regime insiders:

CONFLICTING REPORTS: either
i) Russian SU-27 firing missile on civilians or targeting a ground target and missing OR
ii) Russian SU-27 evading a missile, which hits a civilian neighborhood

trigger warning: from the perspective of a mother and child

Video from zoomer Russian Paratrooper carrying out landing in Ukraine uploaded to Tik Tok:

According to the Joint Forces Command, in the Hlukhov area Ukraine's army used Javelins and neutralized a column of 15 Russian T-72 tanks, General Staff says.

It turns out the airfield (Hostumel) near Kiev was actually contested, but rather with helicopter-borne troops versus paratroopers or infiltrated line based forces as initially reported. Russia lost a few helicopters during this assault.

A Russian platoon (~50 people) from the 74th Motorized Brigade surrendered to Ukrainian forces near Chernihiv in northern Ukraine, Ukraine army commander in chief reports.

Hostomel Airfield North of Kiev captured by Russian VDV (airborne) is under heavy counter-attack by the 4th Rapid Response Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine (NATO trained, battle hardened) who have encircled the Airfield - could be catastrophic for the Russian VDV

Fighting near Hostomel Airport (from 8 hours ago)

Russian Ka-52 helicopter above the road between Hostomel and Borodyanka (northwest of Kiev) - 8 hours old

Russian news agency claims Russian forces have destroyed four Turkish-made Bayraktar drones in service of the Ukrainian military

Turkish drones were critical to Azerbaijan victory over Armenia in recent war.

Low-flying Russian Su-25 attack aircraft. 5 hours ago.

Russian forces trying to advance and cross Dnieper through Antonovskiy Bridge - Su-25 bombers above. 5 hours ago. This assault was successful.

The Dnieper river separates the east and west of the country.

Video from captured Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

Ukraine's PM Shmyhal confirmed exclusion zone and all facilities under control of Russian forces.

Ukrainian army: during the Russian attack against Schastia (map 1 & 2), two Russian tanks destroyed, one captured and ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft cannon also captured

Russian media reports crash of an AN-26 military transport in the Voronezh region (map 3) due to technical failure

russian s-300 surface-to-air missile system burning near kherson airport (city at mouth of strategic dnieper river)

outskirts of kharkiv, east ukraine - last 30 minutes

Multiple Launch Rocket System (“MLRS”) artillery also called Grad

translation: “That’s where it dropped…oh f***…they cleared that area completely…even the windows are shaking”

Unconfirmed video circulating reported to show Ukrainian Armed Forces detonating a bridge over the river Oskol in Senkovo, allegedly to prevent Russian Armed Forces from encircling Kharkiv.

UPS probably changed the collateral weighting to zero i.e. if $100 was bought with 60% debt that amount ($60) needs to be filled with equity.

Battlemap from @assyntgroup report to clients - contextualizes where Russians are advancing.

Footage reportedly from earlier today of a massive GRAD barrage on Ukrainian forces.

Hundreds of Chechen soldiers part of the Russian Armed Forces and loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov praying before initial attack on Ukraine.

Footage from today of Ukrainian forces firing from a SPG-9 on the frontline against Russian forces.

Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia:

Footage of captured Ukrainian soldiers. Russian soldiers handing out cigarettes towards the end of the video to Ukrainian POWs.

Ukrainian Su-27 fighter aircraft has been destroyed at the airfield near Zhytomyr by Russian precision strikes.

Heavy clashes around Hostomel between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops. Around 20 KA-52 Alligator attack helicopters flew across the city a few hours ago.

As a result of Russian strikes, 83 ground objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine were disabled, two Ukrainian Su-27s, two Su-24s, one helicopter and four Bayraktar TB-2 drones were shot down.

-Russian Ministry of Defense

Angry Ukrainian woman talking to a Russian soldier inside an unknown Ukrainian city.

Russian forces positioned an artillery piece on the Kherson bridge and shell incoming Ukrainian forces.

This is at the mouth of the Dnieper river.

Russian tanks in Kharkov, 6 hours ago, this does not mean the city fell:

Ukraine Minister of Defense claims to have re-secured the airport, seized by Russian Air Assault Forces—Russia’s elite military units--on the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv. He added the fight continues.

Analysis of Ukraine situation from Igor Strelkov who launched this conflict 8 years ago with the 51 Russian separatists (1 hour old):

Ukrainian T-64 tanks reportedly been destroyed on the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson (at mouth of river dividing country in two)

Unclear Russian Navy activity, concentrated formation, sailing for naval base in Tartus, Syria. Russia has supported Syrian gov. in civil war.

Commentators suggesting they move to cross the Bosporus chokepoint in Turkey before its cut off?

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has just announced that Ukrainian Men aged 18-60 will not be allowed to leave the country and will be turned away from all Border Checkpoints out of the country.

10,000 automatic rifles have been given to regular civilians in Kyiv in the last few hours - Interior Minister

Heavy fighting in Sumi, north east Ukraine on the border with Russia, far north of the separatist territories.

Civilians taking shelter in subway system in Kharkiv. Kharkiv has seen artillery barrages.

Russian helicopters in Kiev firing flares to avoid ground based attack.

Videos earlier showed Russian helicopter formation was attempting to take Hostomel airport outside Kiev. Ukraine announced they took it. Is this reinforcements taking it back? IDK

Rumors of Russian bombers earlier. Has Senator Rubio seen intelligence on this?

“The general reporting on the assessment from the international intel community indicates that the Ukrainian resistance has been much stiffer than expected, with Russia failing to meet day 1 objectives.”

interesting thread indicating ukraine is outperforming expectations

Russian bomber downed over Kiev

large explosion in Kiev, potentially a power transformer getting hit

Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Russian space program, thread on Biden's sanctions on the Russian aerospace industry:
1) Russia can produce sanctioned components internally
2) Russia has own launch capability
3) Russia’s role in maintaining international space station not replaceable

CNN reporting now the explosion over Kyiv tonight was a Ukrainian SU-27 shot down by Russian anti-air battery in the city's suburbs.

Ukraine has lost the skies over its capital.

Reports are that Russian forces are moving en masse on Kyiv from the north, south and east.

west side of Kyiv. Under relentless airstrikes.

There is fight in the northern region of Sumy. Russian troops (tanks) advancing on Kyiv from the Exclusion Chornobyl Zone were stopped near the settlement of Ivankiv, where Ukrainian army blew up a bridge.

limitations explaining stalled russian advances:

4 hours ago: Fighting is now reaching the outskirts of Kyiv itself

There was street fighting in one of the districts of Kyiv. Ukrainian soldiers were trying to catch people, most likely spotters, who were trying to climb onto the roof.

Ukrainian army: column of Russians in town.They broke through from Obolon and going to the center

Ukraine’s military is urging the people of Kyiv to throw Molotov cocktails at invading Russian infiltration groups. Also to use retail drones to deliver molotov cocktails. This drone suicide bomb tactic was used in the Syrian civil war.

Russian Column near Kiev three hours ago

Russian equipment entering northern part of kiev, the capital city:

Russian vehicles in Kharkiv area, 4 hours ago

Hostumel airport, critical to Russian plan but taken back by Ukraine earlier, attacked by Russian forces 4 hours ago.

A T-72B3 tank with a roof screen, a "Z" marker, and a Soviet flag driving along the Dnieper.

Is the Soviet flag in response to the Nazi flag flown by Ukrainian forces?

10,000 Chechen security officials in Grozny (Russia) preparing for deployment to Ukraine.

Russian military convo destroyed in Kherson, near mouth of the strategic Dnieper river

3 hours ago: Ukraine is ready to hold talks with Russia to negotiate Kyiv’s neutrality, but it must receive security guarantees - Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to President Zelensky

Video circulating of a broken column of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Melitopol (not sharing), see below in map:

Video of some of the Ukrainian soldiers who fought to the death on Snake Island:

Russia’s plan per Ukrainska Pravda intelligence sources:

- attacks along border so troops leave Kyiv
- seize Kyiv airport
- for panic, cut city’s electric and comms, arson/ looting
- create “columns of refugees’ from Kyiv to hinder movement of Ukrainian troops
- seize leadership

US sanctions don’t impact Russia’s oil/natural gas sales ($700M/day).

Russian Defense Ministry says that the main forces of the airborne troops have joined up with the spearhead paratroopers near Hostumel airport, ensuring the blocade of Kiev from the west

Ukrainian Grad MLRS have been deployed on Shevchenko Sq in Kiev to bombard Hostomul airport

State security building in Chernigov on fire. City on highway E95 north of Kiev taken by Russia.

Russian have taken control of Sumy. This map is old now, the arrow points to a new “red” area.

Videos of Russian Chechens deploying from Grozny. Ramzan Kadyrov recruits troops from battle-hardened Chechen War veterans & former mercenaries. This deployment could be partly driven by psychological warfare.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defence 200 helicopters attacked the Ukrainian troops besieging the paratroopers in Hostumel, breaking the Ukrainian assault & inflicting heavy casualties

Russian military vehicles moving through Belarus on train toward the Ukrainian border with a V marking

Ukrainian officials handing out AK-47s to civilians

Ukrainians reportedly began a counter-attack against the Russian vanguard, hit them quite hard & drove them back but didn't manage to surround them, more Russian forces have arrived & fighting in/near Kherson (crossed swords) is ongoing

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi, who was put in power after his predecessor didn’t obey the EU’s orders, successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato

map: extremely large Russian force now reportedly engaging Ukrainian forces near Nikolayev after taking Kherson

picture: z markings on russian forces rolling through Kherson 2 hours ago

Russian amphibious assault on Mariupol, rumored in early days of war, now underway - US defense officials

Europe:
- Russia foreign ministry spokeswoman says there will be 'detrimental consequences' if Sweden and Finland try to join NATO
- Germany's finance minister says the country is open to the idea of cutting Russia off from SWIFT system

Summary of the last two days of Russia/Ukraine conflict:

I’ve edited this map from @JulianRoepcke on day 2 of battle:
- Russia and Belarussia in red diagonal, dark red is Russian rebels in Ukraine
- Dnieper river in blue
- Yellow area is Ukraine under Russian control
- red dot is strategic airport next to Kiev, capital

Disturbing reports on forced conscription of Ukrainian refugees.

I suspect we’re not seeing more on this for the same reason Russians aren’t hearing about Russian losses: media censorship in alignment with one side

Russia is now anticipating the push into Kyiv will exceed the ability of their military medical system to cope with the casualties.

Ukrainian MOD reports that the Russian advance near Konotop is running into supply problems, Russian troops are having to forage for fuel.

Russian soldier says the captured anti-tank missile hasn't been fired & was found next to an abandoned rifle

Ukraine Starokonstantinov Air Base hit by Russia
- Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs from Turkey were held here. Per Forbes, Ukraine had 20. ~destroyed or shot down.

Mirgorod Air Base - 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade is based there, mostly Su-27s

translation: "Are they bombing Mirgorod?

Fresh Russian troops moving toward Berdyansk & Mariupol. Mariupol will to be attacked from two directions at once - by Donbass troops from East & from Crimean Front from south west up the coast. No news on previous Amphibious assault reported.

Russian Ministry of Defense: a large number of weapons supplied by Western countries to Ukraine have been captured - among the spoils are American Javelin anti-tank missile systems and British NLAWs

Kharkiv tractor factory on fire. Since 2014, Kharkiv has had battle hardened troops from Donbass, best equipment, heaviest fortifications, etc.

Ukraine’s Air Defense downed a Russian Ilyushin II-76 carrying a landing force near Vasylkiv south of Kyiv

young people party in underground club in Kyiv during street fighting via snapchat:

Scene in Kyiv, capital city right now:

Answer 125-200.

The plane being shot down hasn’t been confirmed - I still tweeted it above. Both sides have exaggerated their accomplishments at various points. The senator tweeting this out makes it more likely.

Ukraine government: In Donbas, a Ukrainian S-300 system downs a Russian Sukhoi Su-25 and a helicopter at midnight

Note: no independent confirmation yet. Both Russian and Ukrainian governments have been exaggerating or making up propaganda.

Ukrainian military moving hardware into the city limits

UN Security Council voting on resolution condemning Russia.

Yes
- USA, UK, France, 8 others

No
- Russia

Abstain
- China
- India
- United Arab Emirates
__________________
Russia's foreign ministry says relations with US are reaching the point of 'no return'

In Kiev, residents notice marks all over the city, some appear only under ultraviolet light. These markings are reportedly used by the Russian Air Force.

New Map / Report from @TheStudyofWar: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assess...

CORRECTION: I assumed the plane being shot down near Vasylkiv was en route to Hostumel airport (top left in map).

UPDATE: The airfield in Hostumel was destroyed in the Ukrainian retreat, Russians now trying to set landing force in Vasylkiv (2 airfields per on Google maps)

Disinformation is unfortunately the order of the day.

1) This “Russian tank” is a Ukrainian Strela-10 air defense system

2) The driver clearly lost control, it’s not clear it’s intentional

All video streams in Kyiv just cut off simultaneously, there are reports that Russian Forces have destroyed the Power Station providing power to the city.

Russian military uses crowdsourced microtasking platform to aim and calibrate fire during their invasion of Ukraine. Example tasks are to locate ports, medical facilities, bridges, explosion craters. Paying ¢0.25 to $3.25 a task.

Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko and billionaire chocolatier who fled to Poland to escape criminal charges in Ukraine, returned, forfeited his passport, and is personally leading a battalion to defend Kyiv himself.

map1 S & E Ukraine is flat open steppe ideal for tanks but N and W is forest, marsh, or hilly.

map2 shows this OVERLAPs ethnolinguistic differences

map3 shows western Ukraine (ie LVIV) was in Austria-Hungary in 1918

map4 shows West Ukraine was in Poland between WWI and WWII

The context below is important because it helps explain Russian advances in East Ukraine, where Russian separatists received support in 2014, etc. as well as why a Russian offensive west of the Dnieper River would be harder (bad geography, hostile population)

Clashes are visible via traffic data on Google Maps.

If you’re in a warzone, turn off your phone and use a faraday bag.

www.google.com/maps/@50.4578008,30.4191686,13.66z/data=!5m2!1e1!1e4

Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter destroying a Ukrainian Buk SAM earlier (first 4 seconds shows air to surface missile launch)

Satellite images show around 150 transport helicopters with ground forces roughly 32km from Belorussian border with Ukraine

Potential forced conscription on the Russian side as well, or at least putting green troops into a warzone. Source is less reliable (American-backed human rights NGO).

www.thedailybeast.com/russia-used-beatings-and-tricks-to-forcibly-send-soldiers-to-ukraine-human-righ...

The head of the BND, which is the foreign intelligence service of Germany, was forced to leave Kyiv by road because German intelligence misjudged the chances of invasion.

www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news/card/WHye4T1b2gEHOpEz1fKu

Map of conflict - 1 hour old

Large Russian convoy allegedly entering Kharkiv. Kharkiv is well defended and will not be easy for the Russians to take.

Mayor of Vasylkiv confirms a Russian landing operation took place in the city despite the alleged downed Russian plane.

"A lot of paratroopers have landed in the fields in the whole community, who are now fighting hard with the fighters of our 40th Brigade”

This is now disputed:
- no crashed airframe visible
- it was known anti-aircraft was up
- Vasylkiv is a municipal airport, not as larger as Hostumel
- Already have land route to Kiev thru Belarus
- In Azerbaijan, drones flew planes to reveal surface to air missile SAM locations

Russian forces made it partially down Peremohy Avenue and ran into stiff Ukrainian resistance.

Seems like they pulled back.