In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley and guest Tracy Shuchart discuss the tumultuous past two years of the energy market. Since 2020, the markets for oil and natural gas have hit historic points, most famously when the futures price of oil went negative in April of 2020. Tracy gives expert insight into how the energy sector’s adaptation to massive shocks in demand, production, and financial credibility have affected the price of oil in the spot market and the futures market. The interview delves not only into the superficial price movements of the recent past, but into powerful decision makers such as OPEC as well.

Additionally, Tracy and Jack look at exogenous factors causing price movements, such as a move towards green energy and recent geopolitical tensions in Europe and Central Asia. The conversation delves into the current reality of the energy market, as well as its potential future.

Hedge Fund Telemetry: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/author/tracy-shuchart/
Tracy Shuchart on Twitter: @chigrl
Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_

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Timestamps

00:00 Introduction
10:35 Robust Demand
13:59 Limits on Western Production
21:20 Europe's Natural Gas Crisis
31:24 Why Won't Oil Go The Way Of Coal?
36:14 Lithium, Copper, and other "Green Metals"
38:45 Carbon Credits
40:02 Commodities as a Macro Thesis
43:28 Contrary Indicators To The Commodity Supercycle Thesis
45:04 Long-Term Impact of High Energy Prices
47:03 Technicals in the Oil Market
50:33 Common Mistakes In Trading Energy Markets
52:19 Solar