Thread
Let me be clear:
1) Nov98K & Dec135K miss = FLOOR MODEL FAIL
2) Dec100K miss: I have said earlier that if BTC<$100K Dec2021, then S2F is “off the rails” “invalidated” “dead”. Tbh that was an ill attempt to clarify “$100K average this cycle” & regression analysis. S2F MODEL INTACT
1) Nov98K & Dec135K miss = FLOOR MODEL FAIL
2) Dec100K miss: I have said earlier that if BTC<$100K Dec2021, then S2F is “off the rails” “invalidated” “dead”. Tbh that was an ill attempt to clarify “$100K average this cycle” & regression analysis. S2F MODEL INTACT
Ad2 - S2F model intact
Key is that BTC $51K is still within 1 standard deviation band of S2F model (roughly $50K-$200K, see chart). If BTC stays within 1sd band for the next 2.5 yrs, then S2F model is still valid and indeed useful for me. Of course you should make your own call.
Key is that BTC $51K is still within 1 standard deviation band of S2F model (roughly $50K-$200K, see chart). If BTC stays within 1sd band for the next 2.5 yrs, then S2F model is still valid and indeed useful for me. Of course you should make your own call.
Ad1 - Floor model fail
Misses like these have not happened last 10y. Floor model is like 200 week moving average but with geometric instead of arithmetic mean. Geometric mean never increased <4.9% per month. So I could calculate BTC Aug-Dec. However Nov was only 3.7% and Dec 2.7%
Misses like these have not happened last 10y. Floor model is like 200 week moving average but with geometric instead of arithmetic mean. Geometric mean never increased <4.9% per month. So I could calculate BTC Aug-Dec. However Nov was only 3.7% and Dec 2.7%
