Thread
@blknoiz06 95% of these trendy alt L1s will fail to maintain ecosystems & anything that will struggle with funding will disappear — eg Sushi maybe. And all the coins going full ponzinomics for growth purposes will die, like a bunch of the Avax ecosystem. Most NFT roadmaps will be abandoned.
@blknoiz06 Metaverse and gamefi coins will all go to zero as they realise the amount of capital needed to build something sustainable is a lot more than they have. A couple with warchests may keep building. Meme tokens go to zero too and most of them don’t even get bounces.
@blknoiz06 Tokens that require constant emissions to maintain system operation will potentially collapse as liquidity exits important parts of the system or the emissions are twap dumped by the last remaining farmers. Tokens that pump on some narrative (eg MEV coin) but actually have a weak
@blknoiz06 product will be decimated. Some may try to pivot or use treasury to stay afloat. Regulatory pressure will cause many governance tokens on DINO projects to issue burn for treasury claim or completely winding down.
@blknoiz06 Warchest treasury projects are not guaranteed success. They’ll become complacent with their primary focus becoming trying to preserve the treasury or figure out how the team can personally claim some of it. Young, hungry teams with eyes on the prize will be much more effective.
@blknoiz06 60% or more of people that made life-changing money late into this cycle will simply lose all of it in a similar amount of time by bagholding too late, doubling down on dips that keep dipping, and eventually trying to “make money both ways” and dying on leverage.
@blknoiz06 Crypto YouTubers will keep shilling “best altcoins for next month” and IDO projects with lofty targets, they’ll be the last to realise the top happened because their business model requires them to sell the dream of wealth to the desperate. YouTuber coins will be odd markets.
@blknoiz06 Projects with unrealistic FDV will go down 99% after going down 99% & investors will request attention from the regulators and the police. Good projects will go -90% & get their first real stress-test. Great projects with less retail & more long-term thinkers will still go -80%.
@blknoiz06 Founders that ever/often tweet about their token prices have the wrong incentive structure and will leave or go insane. Founders that publicly buy their own token to support price/sentiment will be rekt. Founders and teams that are price-agnostic will survive, motivated by more.
@blknoiz06 Essential projects that spent time on critically thinking about how to structure their product will survive. Projects with multiple strong, well funded teams that are playing multi-decade games will still be here. Tokenomics that look “bad” in a bull market start to look good.
@blknoiz06 Projects that are built to make sense in 10-15 years will attract capital & talent. It will flee those that were built to raise or make money from bubble (we are cloning X on Y chain) w/o long-term considerations. New projects will take smart money & high conviction risk-takers.
@blknoiz06 Open-minded and nimble teams will be able to adapt well to changing environments, such as their home L1 failing. Future-seeing high conviction founders will stick to their vision and force through. Bad DAO structures become toxic and hostile, good DAO structures move quickly.
@blknoiz06 Projects that can rug will rug & some CEXs will die. Many will marry a bag and go down with it, losing their mind in the process. LedgerStatus will hit networth goals only to slip back -33%, he’ll capitulate on his flufs. I will be simply vibing knowing none of it matters anyway.
@blknoiz06 Noob, u didnt even predict 3ac blowing up rofl
