The thing about paradigm-changing & course-altering black swan (unforeseen) events like what is happening in #Israel is that they demand a revisit of ALL assumptions. All.

The great analysts know this & are going back to basics.

Our team and many others have warned for years that US (& even Israeli) policy was accumulating significant risk in how it approached #Iran & #Russia in the Middle East. That Iran was emboldened & becoming more risk tolerant itself.

We are now seeing the tragic consequences of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1711363425001996480