1/ Friends, it has been necessary to iterate our business several times over the years. We have seen so many changes in technology, buying behaviors (we used to send out paper catalogs!), selling on TV to selling on the Internet, etc.

2/ One problem entrepreneurs have (well, all businesses for that matter) is not keeping up with the changing landscape. And change happens faster and faster due to the *knowledge doubling curve* escalating.

Think about what is the half life of "knowledge".

3/ If you think what you know about business today will last very long, you are delusional. I am not talking about Truths, but things do not work the same way. If you are a taxi driver, it is silly not to contemplate the way your industry has changed with Lyft & Uber.

4/ With data and information flooding our ability to assimilate it, we need to make decisions WITHOUT waiting for the full "evidence" to materialize. This is a cousin of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

5/ If you think that all you need is more data, more information, more knowledge to achieve some form of certainty, do not go into business. Go on home and take the short cut because the world is too complex and unpredictable to become certain on what way you need to iterate,

6/ So really, the skill needed is to make decisions with LESS INFORMATION, not wait for more because there is never enough. You will be wrong often, so you need to learn how to clip your left tail risk. You need to survive your inevitable mistakes.

7/ The process of iterating our business and deciding NOT to get the Covid vax had similar impulses. What? It was not certainty or evidence that kept me away from the vax. It was data that I KNEW second hand was *cooked* PLUS the vax being experimental PLUS

8) a healthy skepticism of Big Pharma PLUS a distorted informational landscape. Others with other pieces of evidence chose to get vaccinated. Many of both sides became evangelists for their decision. IMO, evangelizing either position implied a level of certainty.

9) Whether business or your health, we filter massive amounts of information. Entrepreneurs with a bias to action, will not be paralyzed by that knowledge but act with little information and iterate their business model. Is acting with little evidence domain specific?

10) The answer is deeply psychological. FEAR determines action in each domain. In business, losing money creates fear. In health, dying or bad outcomes create fear.

11) In the end, we all need to face our lives with humility and understand uncertainty rules. When I get a chance, I will write an essay, "Uncertainty Rules"... humility is the #1 rule. And never use uncertainty to paralyze action in most domains.