been yrs since I went through this accounting lit, but this Marchant et al was one that stuck in my head [link] ...but if interested in cog entrenchment generally, the first time I read Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment it blew my mind. Highly recommend!

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by @PTetlock -- Is the future knowable, and by whom? All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore.