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AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future Hardcover – September 14, 2021
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A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times
Long before the advent of ChatGPT, Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan understood the enormous potential of artificial intelligence to transform our daily lives. But even as the world wakes up to the power of AI, many of us still fail to grasp the big picture. Chatbots and large language models are only the beginning.
In this “inspired collaboration” (The Wall Street Journal), Lee and Chen join forces to imagine our world in 2041 and how it will be shaped by AI. In ten gripping, globe-spanning short stories and accompanying commentary, their book introduces readers to an array of eye-opening settings and characters grappling with the new abundance and potential harms of AI technologies like deep learning, mixed reality, robotics, artificial general intelligence, and autonomous weapons.
- Print length480 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherCrown Currency
- Publication dateSeptember 14, 2021
- Dimensions6.35 x 1.48 x 9.38 inches
- ISBN-10059323829X
- ISBN-13978-0593238295
Book recommendations, author interviews, editors' picks, and more. Read it now.
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From the Publisher
Editorial Reviews
Review
“To say that AI 2041 is enlightening and valuable, is to understate its significance. . . . AI 2041’s scientific fiction gives us a way to open our eyes to what is actually going on all around us and where things are heading.”—John Kao, Forbes
“By blending imaginative storytelling and technical expertise, Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan bring to life a vision for AI that addresses both our curiosity and our fears. Read this captivating book to better understand how and when certain technologies are likely to mature, and what that could mean for all of us.”—Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft
“We have reached a momentous inflection point with AI, and no other book I’ve read captures it with such stunning insight and imagination. Instead of wondering whether to trust AI, we must think of it as a tool—one that we humans are in charge of shaping. Kai-Fu Lee’s brilliant analysis in AI 2041 embodies this urgent mandate for humanity, while Chen Qiufan’s gripping stories reveal how AI can become a bridge between previously unsolvable problems and a future of new possibilities.”—Arianna Huffington, founder and CEO, Thrive Global
“AI 2041 is the perfect fusion of science and fiction, illuminating the pervasive impact artificial intelligence will have in our lives and the challenges we face in shaping a techno-future that benefits all of humanity.”—Marc Benioff, chair and CEO, Salesforce
“Applying AI to business usually means learning the technology first and then figuring out how to apply it. AI 2041 allows readers to take the exact opposite approach. Through amazingly entertaining stories, Lee and Chen take us on an immersive trip through the future and then zoom out with exceptionally clear explanations of the technology at work. The result is an enjoyable and eye-opening book for those trying to understand how to apply AI.”—Mark Cuban
“Making predictions about the future of AI is not for the faint of heart. This inspired collaboration between a pioneering technologist and a visionary writer of science fiction offers bold and urgent insights into how these technologies may impact our lives.”—Yann LeCun, winner of the Turing Award; chief AI scientist, Facebook
“Are we fit for the strange new world we seem determined to create? What is clear is that imagination-defying change is upon us. Less clear is what these changes will mean for humankind. Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan’s AI 2041 offers the most carefully and caringly considered visions of what is soon to come.”—Bennett Miller, Academy Award–nominated director of Moneyball and Foxcatcher
About the Author
Chen Qiufan (aka Stanley Chan) is an award-winning author, translator, creative producer, and curator. He is the president of the World Chinese Science Fiction Association. His works include Waste Tide, Future Disease, and The Algorithms for Life. The founder of Thema Mundi, a content development studio, he lives in Beijing and Shanghai.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
While GPT-3 makes many basic mistakes, we are seeing glimmers of intelligence, and it is, after all, only version 3. Perhaps in twenty years, GPT-23 will read every word ever written and watch every video ever produced and build its own model of the world. This all-knowing sequence transducer would contain all the accumulated knowledge of human history. All you’ll have to do is ask it the right questions.
So, will deep learning eventually become “artificial general intelligence” (AGI), matching human intelligence in every way? Will we encounter “singularity” (see chapter 10)? I don’t believe it will happen by 2041. There are many challenges that we have not made much progress on or even understood, such as how to model creativity, strategic thinking, reasoning, counter-factual thinking, emotions, and consciousness. These challenges are likely to require a dozen more breakthroughs like deep learning, but we’ve had only one great breakthrough in over sixty years, so I believe we are unlikely to see a dozen in twenty years.
In addition, I would suggest that we stop using AGI as the ultimate test of AI. As I described in chapter 1, AI’s mind is different from the human mind. In twenty years, deep learning and its extensions will beat humans on an ever-increasing number of tasks, but there will still be many existing tasks that humans can handle much better than deep learning. There will even be some new tasks that showcase human superiority, especially if AI’s progress inspires us to improve and evolve.
What’s important is that we develop useful applications suitable for AI and seek to find human-AI symbiosis, rather than obsess about whether or when deep-learning AI will become AGI. I consider the obsession with AGI to be a narcissistic human tendency to view ourselves as the gold standard.
Product details
- Publisher : Crown Currency; First Edition (September 14, 2021)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 480 pages
- ISBN-10 : 059323829X
- ISBN-13 : 978-0593238295
- Item Weight : 1.6 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.35 x 1.48 x 9.38 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #122,936 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #114 in Computers & Technology Industry
- #299 in Artificial Intelligence & Semantics
- #1,102 in Sociology Reference
- Customer Reviews:
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AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future
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About the authors
Chen Qiufan (A.K.A. Stanley Chan) is an award-winning science fiction writer. He grew up near Guiyu, China, home to the world’s largest e-waste recycling center, an area the UN called an “environmental calamity.” His experiences there inspired Waste Tide. He currently lives in Shanghai and Beijing and works as the founder of Thema Mundi Studio.
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee is the Chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures (www.sinovationventures.com/) and President of Sinovation Venture’s Artificial Intelligence Institute. Sinovation Ventures, managing US$2 billion investment funds, is a leading venture capital firm focusing on developing the next generation of Chinese high-tech companies. Prior to founding Sinovation in 2009, Dr. Lee was the President of Google China. Previously, he held executive positions at Microsoft, SGI, and Apple. Dr. Lee received his Bachelor degree from Computer Science from Columbia University, Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University, as well as Honorary Doctorate Degrees from both Carnegie Mellon and the City University of Hong Kong. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Times 100 in 2013, WIRED 25 Icons , Asian Business Leader 2018 by Asia House, and followed by over 50 million audience on social media.
In the field of artificial intelligence, Dr. Lee built one of the first game playing programs to defeat a world champion (1988, Othello), as well as the world’s first large-vocabulary, speaker-independent continuous speech recognition system. Dr. Lee founded Microsoft Research China, which was named as the hottest research lab by MIT Technology Review. Later renamed Microsoft Research Asia, this institute trained the great majority of AI leaders in China, including CTOs or AI heads at Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Lenovo, Huawei, and Haier. While with Apple, Dr. Lee led AI projects in speech and natural language, which have been featured on Good Morning America on ABC Television and the front page of Wall Street Journal. He has authored 10 U.S. patents, and more than 100 journal and conference papers. Altogether, Dr. Lee has been in artificial intelligence research, development, and investment for more than 30 years. His New York Time and Wall Street Journal bestselling book AI Superpowers (aisuperpowers.com) discusses US-China co-leadership in the age of AI as well as the greater societal impacts brought upon by the AI technology revolution.
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Customers find the book's fiction style engaging and helpful for visualizing the future. They describe it as an interesting and fun read for both tech-savvy and tech-phobic readers. The book provides an insightful look at the future of artificial intelligence and its impact on our world. Readers praise the writing quality as well-written and understandable. They find the content imaginative and innovative, sparking their imagination towards the future. However, some find the content boring and difficult to follow due to technical explanations.
AI-generated from the text of customer reviews
Customers find the book engaging with its science fiction storytelling and non-fiction sections. They appreciate the narrative approach that helps visualize what could be. The stories are followed by analysis and explanations of current trends. Readers enjoy the diverse, captivating, and deep way in which the book covers many areas of AI.
"...I have to say, if anyone out there is looking for the best sci-fi of 2021, this is exactly the kind of book you should be considering...." Read more
"...The stories have a Asian undercurrent that connects the human psychological component drawing empathy out of the reader." Read more
"...in an easily understandable and accessible way, is a terrifically informative complement to each of the seemingly very real science fiction stories..." Read more
"...The Short Stories The short stories cover many areas of AI such as: deep learning, natural language processing, augmented and virtual..." Read more
Customers find the book engaging and fun to read. They find it interesting for both tech-savvy and non-technical readers. The short stories are easy to understand and make readers feel excited or frightened. Overall, customers consider the book a must-read for everyone.
"...is at the heart of every story: deep learning, image recognition, GAN, deepfake…each story is paired with an essay explaining the central technology...." Read more
"Good read for new AI enthusiast. The content describes many AI applications to the world with a fictional story to explore, what if...." Read more
"...This really is story telling at its best. It is the best effort I have come across to help one envision and nearly experience how aspects of..." Read more
"...the short stories to get to it, I found Lee’s analysis to be much more engaging. He gives a decent introduction to the key AI technologies...." Read more
Customers find the book insightful and providing a glimpse into the future of artificial intelligence. They appreciate the range of considered aspects of AI influence on society, with strategic insights into the most powerful areas. The book provides an amazing vision of the impact of technology on our near-term future, including deep learning and natural language processing. Readers are both scared and hopeful for the power of technology to solve problems.
"...AI technology is at the heart of every story: deep learning, image recognition, GAN, deepfake…each story is paired with an essay explaining the..." Read more
"...The short stories cover many areas of AI such as: deep learning, natural language processing, augmented and virtual reality, along with autonomous..." Read more
"...There is way lots of "techno-babble", some of which is hilariously ill-informed, especially in the last "plentitude: singularity" Chapter 10...." Read more
"...It is an incredibly powerful, scary and yet hopeful look at our future with AI...." Read more
Customers find the writing quality good. They appreciate the well-written descriptions of what could happen as AI progresses. The author has a great knowledge of civil details in the locations. The analysis is written in an understandable and accessible way that achieves clarity and precision without relying too much on regular language. The authors did a great job distilling a complex topic and making it easy to understand.
"...Lee’s essays are well-written and cuts straight to the point. He achieves clarity and precision without relying too much on the regular jargon, and..." Read more
"...The analysis is more appealing for my fact based reading tastes...." Read more
"...This supporting analysis, written in an easily understandable and accessible way, is a terrifically informative complement to each of the seemingly..." Read more
"...stories cover many areas of AI such as: deep learning, natural language processing, augmented and virtual reality, along with autonomous vehicles..." Read more
Customers find the book imaginative, innovative, and visionary. They say it sparks their imagination towards the future, providing an insightful look at artificial intelligence. The style is unique and interesting.
"...the book conveys this information in a much more interesting, imaginative, and highly contextualized way...." Read more
"...collaboration, a growth mindset, agility, trust building, and creativity among others – what some refer to as “21st century skills.”..." Read more
"...the most important artistic genre of our time as it sparks our imagination towards the future...." Read more
"...is excellent and authentic, imbued with authority, confidence, forward-looking and optimism, although the last of which is oddly..." Read more
Customers dislike the book. They find it uninspiring and predictable. The content lacks good stories and is boring with puff pieces.
"The book doesn’t hold your attention. Boring!" Read more
"Too much time about the future. The book was not interesting because the content did not have good stories. I lost my money" Read more
"Boring puff pieces. Skip it." Read more
"Boring and uninspiring and predictable..." Read more
Customers find the book difficult to follow and get into. The technical explanations need a second look, though there is no math involved. The initial chapters are described as technologically dense.
"...are discussed at a deep technical level, there is certainly no math, but everything seems concise and accurate...." Read more
"...Sometimes the technical explanations need a second glance, but I appreciate having the option to delve into the science behind each story." Read more
"This book was difficult to get into...initial chapters were technologically dense, but necessarily so...." Read more
"...This made it difficult to follow. But his summary at the end of each story was very good." Read more
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Intriguing narrative, page-turner, eye-opening AI technology
Top reviews from the United States
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- Reviewed in the United States on September 26, 2021I don’t read much sci-fi, so I didn’t know what to expect. However, when I finally dug in, I couldn’t put the book down. I have to say, if anyone out there is looking for the best sci-fi of 2021, this is exactly the kind of book you should be considering. (In fact I am not sure if you can even call this book sci-fi. Something more like a futurist approach to technorealism? Or an intriguingly fictionalized speculation of AI technology?)
I have a background in artificial intelligence research (I majored in CS and philosophy back in college, and I currently work for a tech thinktank), and I am an avid lover of stories that take place in urban settings. This book pretty much encompasses all I want to read about the way AI interacts with our human society, and the writers did a GREAT job.
The book comes in ten stories. Each story, happening exactly 20 years from now, takes place in a different city in the world (aka ten versions of the future in the year 2041). AI technology is at the heart of every story: deep learning, image recognition, GAN, deepfake…each story is paired with an essay explaining the central technology. My favorite stories are the one set in Africa and the one set in Korea. Though I would have liked to read about what becomes of globalization in 2041 and see more country-to-country interactions (climate change is one of the big topics the book tackles, what is the UN doing, for example?), but the writer Chen generally maintains a one-place-per-story approach, trying to include as many aspects of everyday life as possible. The themes include job seeking, COVID, data privacy, bitcoin—even virtual idols, can you believe it?
Throughout the read, I am repeatedly reminded of The Age of Em by Robin Hanson — another work that imagines a historicized version of the future where robots roam the Earth that I picked up a few years ago. Hanson attempts to describe what a society would look like after “emulated minds” take over Earth, tackling the topic mostly through economics and psychology. However, I have to say, though AI2041 depicts a similar futuristic/robotcentric setting, it is flat-out better. Better in every aspect. And I think what made the crucial difference is the writing itself. The writer Chen Qiufan’s storytelling skills are superb. Although it says in the cover page that the book is a translation, I honestly don’t think any of the nuances had been lost in translation (the praise should also go to the translators). The stories read as fresh as new. The narrative flows smoothly. Chen seamlessly weaves together the technology and the stories and characters, and it does not seem forced at all. He gracefully engages his readers in each of the little “versions of the futures” taking place in different cities in the world. In love with Chen’s writing style, I looked up his name and found out that he has written another long form sci-fi, Waste Tide. Just ordered a copy, too!
Then, the essays. To be honest, I was more excited about what it has to offer about AI, but the technology depicted in the book does not deviate so much from mainstream research and predictions. However, I can imagine that someone who wants to educate themselves on AI and its implications getting a lot out of their read. Lee’s essays are well-written and cuts straight to the point. He achieves clarity and precision without relying too much on the regular jargon, and I think this is another point of strength. I can even imagine this book being used in college as a kind of interdisciplinary, introductory textbook to artificial intelligence or science & literature.
In general, I highly recommend this book. If you are someone like me, read it for the sake of the stories, at least!
- Reviewed in the United States on October 12, 2024Good read for new AI enthusiast. The content describes many AI applications to the world with a fictional story to explore, what if. The analysis is more appealing for my fact based reading tastes. The stories have a Asian undercurrent that connects the human psychological component drawing empathy out of the reader.
- Reviewed in the United States on March 6, 2022The stories are terrific. Kai Fu used his extensive contacts and knowledge network as well as his own incredible depth and breadth of knowledge to think through a roadmap for what he expects AI capabilities will be 20 years from now. He bases his imagination-based forecasting on ongoing actual AI R&D developments, things currently being done by AI start-ups in China, US and other countries, and by his own very well-informed judgement on how to extrapolate today’s current state-of-best-industry-practice with deploying AI to what should realistically be possible at scale 20 years from now.
Except - the book does not present this roadmap per say. Rather, the book conveys this information in a much more interesting, imaginative, and highly contextualized way. Based on Kai-Fu’s roadmap and undoubtedly based on intensive conversations and collaborative review with Kai Fu, the science fiction writer Chen Qiufan (aka Stanley Chan) creates 10 stories. Each story is a remarkably high-fidelity portrayal of real, every-day life in the year 2041. The use of AI capabilities at that future point in time is just part of how things happen, woven into the fabric of what everyday reality is, though 20 years from now.
Each story revolves around capabilities enabled by a few key AI areas. In this sense, each story has a very focused set of themes it elaborates per AI capabilities. At the same time, the stories are not about the AI per say. Each story is deeply and realistically contextualized so that it is about selected aspects of human life, experience, and interaction, as well as the surrounding human social and political environment in the year 2041. The way each story is crafted, certain AI capabilities are deeply interwoven into what life is like and how things happen. Through the collection of stories, the reader can tangibly grasp and vividly experience how AI will very plausibly be changing the way we live and the nature of our lives and interactions across our personal and work-related dimensions.
After each story, Kai Fu gives his analysis of the AI capabilities highlighted in that story. This part is non-fiction. Kai Fu gives his views on where certain AI capabilities will be (those highlighted or implied in that story), and why he thinks this is the case. This supporting analysis, written in an easily understandable and accessible way, is a terrifically informative complement to each of the seemingly very real science fiction stories crafted by Qiufan. The post-story analysis helps to reinforce key points on how the AI capabilities featured in the story are likely to evolve over the next two decades.
This really is story telling at its best. It is the best effort I have come across to help one envision and nearly experience how aspects of everyday life and work and the broader social/political environment are likely to be 20 years from now because of the pervasive usage of increasingly capable AI . Yet, there are no assumptions of magic or miracles per future AI capabilities when they envision these human-centric stories set in a future setting. The projections of capabilities 20 years into the future are to a very large extent--- fact and reality based given what is already observable now across the spectrum of leading-edge research to state-of-the-industry-practice deployment. Of course, the two authors do allow themselves to do some very creative, though reality-grounded “imagineering” of this uncertain future, and this allows them to explore new possibilities of how people and society may function within the stories.
The approach this book takes of combining “evidence-based” science fiction with supporting post-story fact-based analysis on AI technology directions helps me to envision the forthcoming AI-permeated future 20 years from now better than anything else I have come across. I suspect you will feel likewise after you read this book.
Top reviews from other countries
- Hussain A.Reviewed in Canada on August 6, 2023
5.0 out of 5 stars Surprisingly grounded and elaborate visions of the AI future
This is a long book for what it purportedly sets out to do, but it is enjoyable. Each of the ten stories is well written. While not sophisticated stories, they have enough depth to be enjoyable while delivering the vision of the future. Each of the stories is followed by an explanation of the various technologies and how they work (at an overview level) and also the non-technical aspects such as bias, economics, social impact, etc.
If you’re interested in the wide world of the AI, this would be a very interesting read for you.
- Anderson R.Reviewed in Brazil on October 22, 2021
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book! Totally recommended.
Excellent book! Totally recommended.
- Mrs Paula GilmurrayReviewed in the United Kingdom on September 14, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars a future we so want
Wonderfully written. A book the tells the story of AI in an easily digestible way. What will 2041 be like? We humans need to decide.
- Amazon CustomerReviewed in India on August 23, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars Wonderful book on AI
Most interesting way to narrate a complex subject
- D.N.W.Reviewed in Germany on May 12, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars An unusual and absorbing book - well worth and ahead of its time
Blends a very intriguing, relevant and readable mix of storylines embedded with the author's foresight (from 2021!) of what is happening in the (crazy) AI world. The stories are set in India, Africa etc. which makes them both extremely relevant and informative tech wise. Almost the best of @real@ sci-fi in 2024. Many of the projections in 2021 when the book was written are materialising in today's world eg ChatGPT and well beyond. It does not present a very encouraging view for the world's societies (however brilliant for military wars in the West and beyond) in time to come but that was not the authors' seasoned intent which were clearly very much more positive. Sad it is all irreversible and mired in security and profit motives and another tool in the armoury or data processing for Western IT/shopping giants. Can't help but think that the seeds of global inequality are further embedded as in the stories depicted despite all the good the tech is going to do and whatever positive regulatory actions await us here and there.