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The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny Paperback – December 29, 1997

4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 5,698 ratings

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NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Discover the game-changing theory of the cycles of history and what past generations can teach us about living through times of upheaval—with deep insights into the roles that Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials have to play—now with a new preface by Neil Howe.
 
First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history.

William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. With blazing originality,
The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict what comes next.
 
Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period,
The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.
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From the Publisher

“A Fourth Turning lends people…[an] opportunity to heal (or destroy)…the…heart of the republic.”

“Yes, winter is coming, but our path through that winter is up to us.”

“We cannot stop the seasons of history, but we can prepare for them.”

“Might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse—or glory[?]”

Editorial Reviews

Review

“I put down The Fourth Turning with a mixture of terror and excitement. . . . If Strauss and Howe are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets.”—David Kaiser, The Boston Globe

“One of the best efforts to give us an integrated vision of where we are going.”
The Wall Street Journal

“A startling vision of what the cycles of history predict for the future.”
—USA Weekend

From the Back Cover

he postwar High, then the Awakening of the '60s and '70s, and now the Unraveling.  This audacious and provocative book tells us what to expect just beyond the start of the next century.  Are you ready for the Fourth Turning?

Strauss and Howe will change the way you see the world--and your place in it.  In
The Fourth Turning, they apply their generational theories to the cycles of history and locate America in the middle of an unraveling period, on the brink of a crisis.  How you prepare for this crisis--the Fourth Turning--is intimately connected to the mood and attitude of your particular generation.  Are you one of the can-do "GI generation," who triumphed in the last crisis?  Do you belong to the mediating "Silent Majority," who enjoyed the 1950s High?  Do you fall into the "awakened" Boomer category of the 1970s and 1980s, or are you a Gen-Xer struggling to adapt to our spl

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Crown; Reprint edition (December 29, 1997)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 400 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0767900464
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0767900461
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1.02 x 9.1 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 5,698 ratings

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4.5 out of 5 stars
5,698 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find the book insightful and thought-provoking. They describe it as a great read that explores historical cycles and their impact on individuals and societies. The pacing is described as fascinating and exciting. However, opinions differ on the narrative quality, comprehension, and accuracy. Some find the premise interesting and compelling, while others feel the narrative is repetitive and tedious.

AI-generated from the text of customer reviews

318 customers mention "Insight"273 positive45 negative

Customers find the book's insights thought-provoking and engaging. They appreciate the authors' clear explanation of historical events and their intriguing perspective. The book provides a glimpse into the future using current events as a proxy.

"...It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is..." Read more

"...The text uses extensive cultural and historical material to support the chronological sequence of seven “Saeculum,” beginning with the Wars of the..." Read more

"...Overall, as I continue to read this book, it is changing my view of world and American history and seems to make more sense out of the data found in..." Read more

"...Unfortunately, despite a very intriguing concept and the fun that comes from seeing overfamiliar events through a different (perhaps skewed) lens, &..." Read more

275 customers mention "Readability"236 positive39 negative

Customers find the book engaging and well-written. They consider it a valuable read that should be read by all Americans. The book provides insightful information and accurate predictions.

"...It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is..." Read more

"...Nonetheless, right or wrong, it's an interesting idea that's worth exploring; and it may even prove useful...." Read more

"GREAT!!!!" Read more

"...But while the book is well written, and does back its contentions up with solid arguments, I found it to be a bit rambling at times; there were..." Read more

23 customers mention "Cycle length"23 positive0 negative

Customers find the book insightful on cycles of life and generations. They appreciate the authors' skillful analysis of generational patterns, providing insightful predictions about human civilizations. The book provides a system of historical cyclicality that presents a theory of where we have come from.

"...Seasonality is an important tool to help us understand this phenomenon and make sense of the time in which we live." Read more

"...4 archetypes play a crucial role. The positioning of the archetypes depicted in the table above..." Read more

"This book builds on the theory that history is cyclical, repeating after four 'turns,' each lasting 20-25 years...." Read more

"...The descriptions of the different generational archetypes and how they affect societal change is truly enlightening...." Read more

23 customers mention "Pacing"17 positive6 negative

Customers find the book engaging and thought-provoking. They describe it as provocative, interesting, and intense. The thesis is intriguing and exciting for theater enthusiasts.

"...What an exciting time to be in theater. Everywhere, it seemed, theater companies worked passionately to rebirth society through performances. “..." Read more

"2002 review: Don't buy this book new. This book is built upon a very provocative and interesting thesis about the spiraling and repetitive nature..." Read more

"...history seems reasonably accurate; the thesis is sophisticated and intriguing...." Read more

"...What a turgid mess...." Read more

70 customers mention "Narrative quality"33 positive37 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the narrative quality. Some find the premise interesting and engaging, with a compelling description of why events happen and how people are described. They describe the narrative as believable with many examples. However, others feel the book is repetitive, rambling at times, and rehashes the same themes and authors over and over.

"...its contentions up with solid arguments, I found it to be a bit rambling at times; there were places where I didn't really understand the..." Read more

"...about what’s going on now and it looks at history and how history is repeating itself...." Read more

"...It contains a broad arc of history viewed internally and is epic in the worst way possible...." Read more

"...Generations is a fascinating journey through our nation’s rich history, through the lens people would have seen through, based on the part of the..." Read more

54 customers mention "Comprehension"25 positive29 negative

Customers have different views on the book's comprehension. Some find it detailed and understandable, with a lot of information. Others feel it is repetitive and difficult to understand, taking some time to read.

"...hypothesis with some good supporting evidence but too difficult to validate or reliably apply. Highlight is the prophetic claims." Read more

"...read in several years; however, it is so well explained the concepts are easy to grasp...." Read more

"This book appears to be a daunting read until one realizes the only needed action is to merely proceed straight through the book not trying to..." Read more

"...In our time, it holds valuable information, never mind it was written in the 90's...." Read more

16 customers mention "Accuracy"6 positive10 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the book's accuracy. Some find it truthful and empirically based, with valid points that may make you think. Others mention disturbingly accurate predictions, repetitive writing, and a weak attempt at forecasting the future. The book tends to generalize to support the thesis with little clarity or explanation.

"...It also tends to generalize to support the thesis...." Read more

"...; and of archetypes (Prophet, Nomad, Hero and Artist) The authors make valid points and may make you think differently about the coming crisis and..." Read more

"This book is tedious and unconvincing, but the theory posited is somewhat imaginative...." Read more

"Detailed. No predictions, yet gives great insight to what lays ahead for our future" Read more

13 customers mention "Erasure"4 positive9 negative

Customers have different views on the book. Some find it new and fresh, serving its educational purpose well. Others feel it's dated and has less impact than the authors intended. There is no mention of how to tell if the book is outdated or not.

"...While both of these books is obviously a little dated, it’s pretty incredible that they were able to predict Covid in the early 1990’s..." Read more

"...One major criticism is that there is nothing aside from the passage of time to describe how to tell if the transition has been made from one turning..." Read more

"This book like I said is BRAND NEW and I got it for like $7.99. Definitely ordering from these guys again." Read more

"...I had high expectations. It's dated (written in the mid 1990s), and the events since then have kind of blown up their theory on the ebb & flow of..." Read more

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Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on August 13, 2012
    After many instances of prodding from readers, I finally bought and read The Fourth Turning, and I'm sorry that I waited so long. It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is happening all around us.

    I want to emphasize at the outset that this isn't some doom 'n' gloom book that came off the presses after all the calamities we've seen over the past decade. It is, in fact, a fifteen-year old book, and I imagine much of it was written around 1995 or so, during the feel-good Clinton years. When the book came out in 1997, the authors made clear that they were currently in the Third Turning, and that the Fourth Turning - the final quarter of a cycle that they postulate recurs throughout modern human history - was coming around 2005 or so.

    Strauss and Howe write:

    Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era - a turning - every two decades or so....Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, naturation, entropy, and destruction:

    + The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;

    + The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;

    + The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;

    + The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

    As they anticipated the next "Turning", they referenced its start point around 2005, in the middle of the "Oh-Oh" decade (which I've now heard referred to as the "Naughts"):
    The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

    I would suggest, and I'm sure many would agree, that the attacks of 9/11 were the "sudden spark". Early in the book, the authors describe how there have, through human history, been three general ideas about the path of time in our lives - chaotic, cyclical, linear. The entire basis of the book is that the cyclical perception of the world is the accurate one, and the human species continues to move its way through this quartet of cycles, totalling about the length of a human life, called a Saeculum. We are presently in The Millennial Saeculum, which is broken down into these four parts:

    + The American High (1946-1964);

    + The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984);

    + The Culture Wars (1984-2005?);

    + The Millennial Crisis (which, when the book was published, was yet to arrive)

    If you consider the four quarters of a Saeculum to the time "axis" of the grid, the other is made of the human archetypes, whose character depends on their generation as well as what portion of the Saeculum is currently running. The present archetypes are described as follows:

    + The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943-1960);

    + The 13th Generation (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981);

    + The Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982-?);

    + The Artist archetype is being born now

    I'm a member of what they dub the 13th Generation, so-called simply because it is the 13th generation of Americans that they track.

    Many of the predictions about the near-future that were offered are eerily accurate, whereas others are embarassingly wrong, such as the supposition that, to celebrate the year 2000, "Others will board a chartered Concorde just after midnight and zoom back through time from the third millennium to the second." Of course, I can't fault the authors for not anticipating the fiery end of the Concorde fleet!

    I am, of course, most interested in the Crisis era, since that is supposedly what we're in the midst of living; the authors declare the Crisis can be constructed with this morphology:

    + A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood

    + Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.

    + The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.

    + The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order

    Here again, I would think most would agree the 9/11 attacks would serve the definition of "catalyst" quite well. As the book draws to a close, it delves into greater detail about what could be forthcoming from the perspective of someone writing in 1997. I've emphasized a few items in bold:

    Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.....a spark will ignite a new mood...In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party......the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:

    + A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons......Congress declares war.....Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes.

    + An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown.....Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.

    As superb as these projections were, the authors hasten to add - ironically - "It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen." On the contrary, these guesses about the future (which, let's face it, required the authors to really go out on a limb) were excellent. They continue (although I am using ellipses to replace large chunks of text, since I'm not in the mood to re-type an entire book):

    Time will pass, perhaps another decade, before the surging mood propels America to the Fourth Turning's grave moment of opportunity and danger: the climax of the Crisis.....the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

    + Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)

    + Social distress....

    + Cultural distress......

    + Technology distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos

    + Ecological distress....

    + Political distress....

    + Military distress.......

    This is a thoughtful, well-articulated, and engrossing book. As with any text that makes broad sociological assertions and generalizations, the authors have opened themselves up to plenty of criticism about the plausibility of their prophecy. Taken as a whole, I think this book provide an enlightening blueprint of both the present and the near-future. I strongly recommend it.
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  • Reviewed in the United States on January 20, 2025
    History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

    College professors have been complaining about how dumb students are, for at least as far back as Plato (and I’m sure this was old hat even then). If we really were getting dumber every generation, you’d think we would have devolved into slime molds by now. But we haven’t.

    The answer to this seeming paradox is simple: history is not linear but cyclic.
    Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe divide history into saecula, each saeculum lasting about eighty to a hundred years – roughly the length of a long human life. Each saeculum is divided into four turnings, each one corresponding to one of the four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and fall.

    The first turning is a Crisis – corresponding to Winter. The generation that comes of age during a crisis the authors call "Heroes" (e.g., the “Greatest Generation” that won World War Two).

    The Crisis is followed by a High – corresponding to Spring. This is a time of consensus, conformity, growth, and wealth creation, The last high was roughly the period between the end of World War Two and the assassination of Jack Kennedy – comprising the childhood of the Baby Boomers. The generation that comes of age during a high the authors call “Artists” (although I think “Builders” would have been a better term). This was the so-called “Silent Generation.”

    The High is followed by an Awakening – corresponding to Summer. This is a time of individuality, questioning, dissent, and collapsing boundaries. The last Awakening began around 1964, around the time the Free Speech Movement at Berkeley began. The generation that comes of age during this period the author calls "Prophets." This was the Baby Boomer generation.

    The Awakening is followed by an Unraveling – corresponding to Fall. This is a time of harvest, but also of scattering – typified by Gordon Gecko’s proclamation that “Greed is Good,” and also typified by a restlessness that leads many to wander the world instead of settling down and raising families of our own. The generation that comes of age during this period the authors call "Nomads."

    And the Unraveling is followed by another Crisis.

    If the author’s theory is correct, then we already are overdue for another Crisis. Or maybe it has already began, with the COVID-19 pandemic and the exploitation of that pandemic by our rulers to launch an all-out assault on human society. As I write these words, we have a terrible war in Ukraine, a terrible war in Gaza, a terrible war in Syria, and we are on the brink of war in the Korean peninsula and also in Taiwan – and any one of these conflicts could go nuclear.

    And even though we are now on the brink of another Crisis (or maybe we’ve already gone over the edge) there is hope and comfort in the authors’ message. There is nothing to be gained by judging your accomplishments by those of your parents at the same age, because they came of age in a different world than you did. And since history is cyclic, no problem can ever be regarded as finally and completely solved – in fact, every solution brings new problems. So don’t worry about solving all the world’s problems, once and for all. Just worry about deploying your interests and talents as best you can, and, hopefully, little by little, each generation will leave the world a little better than as they found it.

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  • Ava
    5.0 out of 5 stars A feeling of belonging
    Reviewed in Germany on August 10, 2024
    I got this book to help me put these uniquely troubled times into perspective. I got more than that. It helped me make sense of my place in this world as an alienated, bewildered "nomad" who had wondered if i had imagined the world that was so different.
  • Jasturgeon
    5.0 out of 5 stars Informative -- but a question about the fourth turning's Crisis climax
    Reviewed in Canada on August 5, 2021
    The book is highly informative and indeed provides the broad contours of what was to come in the 2000s as and 2010s. It's fascinating to go back in time and try to understand the view of the present 30 years in the past.

    The 'catalyst' that occurs at or near the beginning of the fourth turning (after the Unraveling has fully unraveled) I took to be the Great Financial Crisis circa 2008/09. The climax, some have suggested, is the pandemic and broad social upheaval that has accompanied it.

    I don't think that's the case, and the climax has yet to arrive. The book predicts the end-event(s) of the fourth turning would occur anywhere between 2020 and 2026 -- and recall, each of the previous fourth-turning climaxes were man-made *socially* transformative events, mostly wars (Revolution, Civil etc). You could make an argument that Jan. 6 is perhaps the transformative climax of this turning, but it's not a convincing one.

    I would love to get the surviving author's opinion on whether or not the Crisis climax is yet to come, and whether he foresees the turning ending well, or badly. Both outcomes are possible as the book says; one will lead to a new optimistic and productive High period (post-WW2 boom) the other toward a new 'first turning' that will be quite different than our current era, and not for the better for most of us.
  • Al Albrecht
    5.0 out of 5 stars Prepare-se
    Reviewed in Brazil on March 25, 2021
    Livro fantástico sobre os ciclos da história. Poderia ter sido escrito ontem. Muito atual e esclarecedor.
  • Edwin Tofield
    4.0 out of 5 stars Fourth turning
    Reviewed in the Netherlands on September 11, 2022
    Erg Amerikaans georiënteerd. Had er meer van verwacht.
  • Diego Mejía
    5.0 out of 5 stars A good book if you want to understand more the history of humanity
    Reviewed in France on February 13, 2022
    I don't know much about history but I think it helps us understand how we grow as a society through the years and what we can do to improve our lives.
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    Diego Mejía
    5.0 out of 5 stars A good book if you want to understand more the history of humanity
    Reviewed in France on February 13, 2022
    I don't know much about history but I think it helps us understand how we grow as a society through the years and what we can do to improve our lives.
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