“Trump has winked at or celebrated violence against his political enemies repeatedly, from offenses as grand as honoring the miscreants behind January 6 to ones as petty as mocking Nancy Pelosi’s elderly husband after he was nearly bludgeoned to death. When a child aroused by fire is warned not to play with matches and persists, it’s understandable to treat his inevitable singeing as a hard but useful lesson that might make him behave more responsibly.”